- The U.S. and China are rapidly decoupling AI capital markets, with Beijing effectively blocking major AI/data-center firms from overseas listings while the U.S. readies mega-tech IPOs.
- SpaceX is reported to be targeting a mid-to-late 2026 IPO raising $30B+ at roughly a $1.5T valuation, driven by Starlink growth and ambitions like space-based data centers.
- Anthropic is engaging banks and advisors toward IPO readiness and aiming for a $300B+ valuation, projecting a sharp revenue run-rate ramp on enterprise adoption.
- China is pushing AI hardware and semiconductor champions to list domestically or in Hong Kong by easing listing rules and spinning out units such as Alibaba’s T-Head and Baidu’s Kunlunxin.
Read More
The recent approval by China’s CSRC for Lontian Watson to list overseas serves as a signal of its tight regulatory control over which firms can access foreign capital. Crucially, the regulator cleared Lontian Watson only after confirming it is “unrelated to next‐generation core technologies like AI or data centers,” leaving essentially no space for major Chinese AI firms to list overseas any time soon. This reinforces a broader trend: capital market ‘‘decoupling’’ now includes not just technology transfer barriers but full segregation of financial plumbing.
In the U.S., the conditions are aligning for what may be a historic wave of “mega‐IPOs” in tech. SpaceX is the lead candidate in this wave, with reported intentions to raise $30 billion+ at a $1.5 trillion valuation. Key revenue projections—roughly $15 billion for 2025 rising to $22-24 billion in 2026—alongside a recent insider secondary valuing the company above $800 billion, underpin investor confidence.
Anthropic, meanwhile, has escalated its valuation path sharply—from ~$61.5 billion in early 2025 to its latest round valuing it at $183 billion—and is targeting over $300 billion in upcoming funding. It is projecting a revenue run rate that could near $26 billion in 2026, supported by enterprise clients and products like Claude Code. While it has engaged IPO advisors like Wilson Sonsini, its timing is early, and it has not committed to a definitive date.
On China’s side, efforts are focused on building an autonomous AI-hardware capital base. GPU chipmakers such as Biren are going public in Hong Kong. Firms like Alibaba and Baidu are spinning off semiconductor units (e.g., T-Head, Kunlunxin) to list domestically or in Hong Kong. Regulators have relaxed certain listing requirements—for example, allowing loss-making tech firms on STAR Market—eliminating one of the key barriers to AI hardware and infrastructure IPOs.
Strategic implications are significant for global capital flows, national tech ecosystems, and regulatory competition. U.S. exchanges stand to attract large‐scale AI investment, deepening its dominance in frontier technologies. Chinese markets are emphasizing self-sufficiency and national security, potentially limiting global capital access for their AI firms. For international investors, choosing between U.S.- or China-aligned AI ecosystems may become an explicit investment and portfolio decision. Key open questions include regulation (export controls, bearing on where tech can list), cost structures, governance / ownership breakdowns, and profitability paths—especially for heavily loss-making AI firms.
Supporting Notes
- SpaceX is targeting a valuation of about $1.5 trillion, with plans to raise over $30 billion in its IPO, likely in mid-to-late 2026, amid expectations that its 2025 revenue will be around $15 billion, rising to $22-24 billion in 2026.
- A recent secondary share sale at ~$420 per share set SpaceX’s private valuation above $800 billion.
- Anthropic raised $13 billion in a Series F round in September 2025 at a post-money valuation of $183 billion.
- Anthropic is projecting its annualised revenue run rate to increase to ~$26 billion in 2026, supported by over 300,000 business customers.
- The CSRC’s recent approval for Lontian Watson came after an eight-month pause on overseas listings for domestic firms; the company was only permitted to list abroad once proven to be unrelated to key AI/data center technologies.
- Biren, a Shanghai GPU maker, is using its Hong Kong IPO to raise US$~624 million; it reported losses of ~9 billion yuan in first half of 2025 but is scaling its hardware offering and entry into overseas capital markets.
- Alibaba plans to spin off chipmaking unit T-Head for IPO; Beijing has eased thresholds on STAR Market and Hong Kong Stock Exchange for loss-making AI firms to boost domestic listing of high-growth companies.