Intel’s Q1 Guidance Misses as Supply Constraints Weigh — Gold & Silver Shine Amid Global Uncertainty

Intel’s recent earnings reveal a critical inflection point: while the company beat expectations in Q4 2025, the forward guidance offered for Q1 2026 fell short of market forecasts—a mismatch driven by acute supply chain constraints and persistent yield inefficiencies in its cutting-edge 18A manufacturing node. The outlook for Q1, with revenue pegged below consensus and zero earnings guidance, indicates management anticipates demand ahead of supply, particularly for data center and AI chips, to remain unmet throughout the quarter.

These operational bottlenecks—especially those affecting wafer yields, advanced packaging, and component memory availability—underscore a broader structural imbalance in the “AI chip” market: surging demand is outpacing the ability of legacy players like Intel to scale quickly without compromises. Competitors such as AMD, and foundry fabricators like TSMC, may benefit disproportionately as Intel turns away orders or plants operate below ideal capacity or yield levels.

From a macroeconomic perspective, rising geopolitical tensions and unexpected policy shifts (e.g., U.S. tariff threats, regulatory uncertainty) continue to press investors toward safe havens. Gold’s march toward $5,000 per ounce, along with silver’s rise past $100/oz, reflects this hedge demand. Forecasts pointing to possible $6,000/oz levels suggest continued risk aversion and inflationary concerns. Treasury yields declining slightly further lower borrowing costs and reinforce the flight toward assets perceived as safer [Article].

Strategically, Intel must demonstrate faster execution on its roadmap—notably yield improvement at 18A and securing external foundry customers—to justify the bullish narrative built around its return. Short-term disappointment may be already priced in, but the durability of the “turnaround” story hinges on tangible supply side gains. Meanwhile, for investors, portfolios may need rebalancing toward companies with fewer execution risks in high-growth areas or those better positioned to capitalize on tightening supply in AI infrastructure.

Open questions include whether Intel can improve its yields at 18A quickly enough to meet demand, how long supply shortages will persist across the memory and packaging supply chain, and whether gold’s surge represents transitory hedge behavior or the start of a sustained bull run. Monitoring policy decisions, inflation data, and Fed guidance will be key in answering these.