- SpaceX has hired Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Morgan Stanley to underwrite a potential IPO targeted for mid-to-late 2026.
- Talked-about valuation spans roughly $800B from recent secondary trades to $1–1.5T, with fundraising expected to exceed $25–30B.
- Starlink is the core equity story, comprising most revenue with ~$15B projected in 2025 and $22–24B in 2026 driven by rapid subscriber growth.
- Key uncertainties include regulatory approvals, syndicate leadership, execution on Starlink and Starship economics, and possible timing slippage into 2027.
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Key Facts and Strategic Drivers
On January 22, 2026, reports from The Financial Times, Forbes, and Barron’s revealed that SpaceX has officially lined up leading major investment banks—Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Morgan Stanley—to manage and underwrite its planned initial public offering. This marks a concrete step for a firm long speculated to go public but which until now has offered only signals. The selection of these banks reflects both the scale of the expected IPO and SpaceX’s desire to leverage deep institutional relationships and broad distribution reach.
Central to SpaceX’s valuation and IPO narrative is its Starlink division. Recent estimates place total revenues for 2025 near $15 billion, with Starlink contributing the majority share. Projections suggest revenue could increase to $22–24 billion in 2026. These financials are supported by Starlink’s rapid subscriber growth—from around 4.6 million in 2024 to 8–9 million by late 2025. Analysts view Starlink as the crux for generating the stable cashflows needed to satisfy public investors and to justify the elevated multiples being implied by current valuation talk.
Valuation and Fundraising Expectations
SpaceX’s valuation has recently been buoyed by internal share transactions that imply a private value near $800 billion; this figure is serving as a benchmark for IPO discussions. Market commentary and financial press suggest SpaceX could aim for a post-IPO valuation of $1–1.5 trillion. Fundraising targets reportedly exceed $25–30 billion, which, if achieved, would position SpaceX among the highest-value IPOs in history.
Challenges, Risks, and Timing
Despite momentum, the road ahead is riddled with potential obstacles. Regulation remains a wildcard—starship launch permits, spectrum approvals for Starlink’s expansion into direct-to-cell and mobile services, and possible FAA/FCC friction could delay key components. Additionally, execution risks—particularly margin pressures from hardware costs, ARPU (average revenue per user) scaling in new markets, and the cost/lifecycle of Starship and launch operations—could affect investor expectations.
The timeline for the IPO is often cited as mid-to-late 2026; however, internal company communications caution that the timing is not firm and that any disruption in markets or operations could push the event into 2027. Also unresolved as of now are the leadership roles within the underwriter syndicate—while Morgan Stanley is seen as a strong candidate for a leading role, no “lead left” or similar senior left-standing position has been formally confirmed.
Strategic Implications and Open Questions
- If SpaceX succeeds at an IPO at or near $1.5 trillion, it would not only eclipse prior IPO records but could reframe valuations in space, telecommunications, defense, and satellite internet sectors.
- The IPO would likely enable SpaceX to monetize equity for employees and early investors, reduce reliance on private fundraising, and accelerate massive capital intensive programs such as Starship and space-based data centers.
- For public market participants, the degree to which Starlink alone—or in combination with launch services and future segments—can consistently deliver predictable revenues and cash flows will be critical.
- Open questions include: how much will the lead underwriter(s) shift between banks; what proportion of the IPO is primary vs. secondary; what regulatory bottlenecks might stymie revenue expansion; and whether macroeconomic conditions—such as interest rates, inflation, and tech market sentiment—might force delays or lower valuation expectations.
Supporting Notes
- SpaceX has appointed Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Morgan Stanley to underwrite and manage its IPO process.
- Recent secondary share transactions valued SpaceX at approximately $800 billion.
- Analysts and media reports project a potential IPO valuation ranging between $1–1.5 trillion.
- Expected total company revenue is estimated at about $15 billion in 2025, rising to $22–24 billion in 2026.
- Starlink contributed more than half of SpaceX’s revenue in prior years, with subscriber growth reaching 8–9 million customers by late 2025.
- Morgan Stanley is viewed as the front-runner for a leadership role in the underwriting syndicate, though no role has been finalized.
- Projected IPO fundraising is expected to exceed $25–30 billion.
- Regulatory risks include spectrum licensing, launch approvals, and expansion into mobile-to-satellite services. and execution risks center on margin pressures, ARPU variation, and Starship development.
- While public speculation links mid-to-late 2026 for an IPO, internal statements warn that the timeline is highly contingent and could slip.