- KeyBanc cut monday.com’s (MNDY) 12-month price target to $220 from $270 on near-term growth concerns while reiterating Overweight.
- Other firms have also turned more cautious, including Jefferies (to $260), BTIG (maintained $210), and Barclays (slightly lower around the mid-$190s).
- Operationally, monday.com is still growing ~26–32% YoY with improving non-GAAP margins and FY25 revenue guidance of about $1.21–$1.23B.
- Upside comes from upmarket expansion, cross-selling, and AI products, while risks include soft forward guidance, macro/traffic headwinds, and potential margin pressure from higher AI spend.
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KeyBanc’s decision to lower monday.com’s price target from $270 to $220—an ~18.5% drop—while retaining its Overweight rating highlights concern about the company’s near-term growth outlook rather than its longer-term potential or fundamentals. This move appears consistent with revisions by several other analysts (Jefferies down to $260, Barclays modestly lowered, BTIG holding) reflecting a more cautious sentiment across the broker community.
On the operating side, monday.com has delivered solid revenue growth: Q3 2025 saw 26% YoY revenue increase to $316.9 million, with non-GAAP operating margin improving to 15% from 13% a year prior. In Q4 2024, revenue rose ~32% to $268 million and adjusted EPS came in at $1.08, beating expectations., The company’s FY25 revenue guidance (~$1.21-1.23B) is in line with consensus estimates, though Free Cash Flow and profitability metrics have slight downward pressures.,
Strategically, monday.com is emphasizing upmarket expansion (bigger customers, larger ARR contracts), cross-selling across its growing product suite—including CRM, Campaigns, other verticals—and accelerating AI offerings such as AI agents and workflow tools. These are positive indicators for longer-term retention and monetization., However, KeyBanc specifically points to the sensitivity of investor sentiment to even modest deviations in growth metrics in a climate where macro headwinds and sector rotations are prevalent.
Risks to monitor include: soft guidance (as seen in some quarters where forward revenue missed expectations slightly), higher R&D and AI infrastructure costs which could pressure gross margins, algorithmic/tracking changes (e.g., Google’s search algorithm affecting lower-tier customer acquisition), and international or macro volatility.,,
In summary, while monday.com remains fundamentally strong, with accelerating AI tailwinds and positive market positioning, recent analyst revisions suggest that the stock is no longer in low-risk “beat expectations at all costs” territory. Investors should weigh upside from innovation and scale against near-term execution risks and valuation headwinds.
Supporting Notes
- KeyBanc reduced its price target from $270 to $220, citing growth concerns, but retained an Overweight rating on MNDY.,
- Jefferies lowered its target to $260; BTIG maintained a Buy at $210; Barclays lowered its target slightly to ~$194 while keeping Overweight.
- Q3 2025 revenue was $316.9 million, up ~26% YoY; non-GAAP operating margin rose to ~15%.
- Q4 2024 results: revenue ~$268 million (+32% YoY), adjusted EPS of $1.08 vs est. $0.79.,
- FY25 revenue guidance of ~$1.21-1.23B in line with consensus, with free cash flow margin in the mid-20s.,
- Risk highlight: forward revenue guidance for Q4 2025 was slightly below estimates (~$328-330M vs consensus ~$333.8M), producing negative guidance surprise.,
- Algorithm and marketing challenges: changes to Google’s algorithm were noted as causing temporary volume loss in lower market segments/customers.,,
- Strategic trajectory: upmarket expansion, cross-selling across larger customers, multi-product adoption, and ramping AI capabilities.,,