- U.S. food and beverage consumer goods are projected to post 23% dollar-sales growth in 2026 mainly from price and mix, while unit volumes stay flat to down.
- Shoppers are increasingly value-driven and trading to store brands, cutting discretionary spend as inflation and policy uncertainty persist.
- Everyday goods inflation is still running around the mid-2% range YoY, keeping pressure on real purchasing power and category competition.
- Retailers and brands are leaning on private-label expansion, better measurement, AI, and more flexible supply chains to protect margins and win attention.
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The U.S. consumer goods sector is navigating a complex outlook in 2026, where nominal growth is modest but margins and positioning increasingly internally contested. According to a revised outlook for the Food & Beverage segment by Circana, dollar‐sales growth is expected to be 2–4%, even as unit volumes flatten or decline. In this environment, price increases and the mix of higher-margin products will drive revenue more than sheer volume. This suggests brands need to lean into premiumization or differentiated positioning, even as consumer wallets tighten.
Consumers are signaling strong value orientation. Inflation remains a key pressure point: everyday goods prices rose ~2.4% year over year in December 2025, with month-to-month increases for seven consecutive months. Headline CPI inflation is running around 2.7% annually, with core inflation (excluding food & energy) at 2.6%–2.7%. Though inflation is cooling relative to earlier spikes, these rates continue to compress margin leeway, especially for producers and retailers without strong pricing power. Blue Yonder’s global survey showed 85% of U.S. consumers are cutting back due to grocery inflation, intensifying competition in lower price tiers. The shift toward store brands is accelerating: private labels captured ~21% of U.S. grocery market share in 2025, outpacing national brands in growth.
Strategic execution will increasingly rely on adaptability. From Circana and Kellanova analysis, winning CPG and consumer brands are layering price strategy, omnichannel reach, tech-enabled consumer engagement, and supply chain visibility. Retailers are expanding store brand options in response to demand for value, health, and novel product formats. Brands also face regulatory headwinds (e.g. enhanced traceability mandates) and supply chain volatility. Furthermore, emerging tech—AI, measurement tools, agentic commerce—is shifting where and how consumers make purchases.
Strategic implications for industry players include:
- Invest in portfolio and mix optimization—premium and niche products may outperform mass market amid weakening volume trends.
- Strengthen pricing discipline while mitigating cost inflation through procurement efficiency, innovation, and clean labeling.
- Enhance brand trust via transparency around origins, ingredients, sustainability; increasingly nonnegotiable for consumers.
- Leverage technology—AI, measurement, agentic commerce—to stay ahead in distribution, discovery, and customer acquisition.
- Monitor consumer sentiment and macroeconomic indicators closely, especially as inflation and real income pressures may shift patterns rapidly.
Open questions remain: how persistent will inflation be in goods vs. services? Will policy (tariffs, trade regulation) further disrupt cost inputs? Can brands maintain margin as private labels gain share? At what point do shifts in consumer behavior (e.g. health/diet / wellness effects) materially reshape demand for legacy product lines?
Supporting Notes
- Circana projects U.S. F&B dollar sales growth of 2–4% in 2026, with flat or slightly negative volume sales.
- Circana notes that value seeking is intensifying among consumers—premiumization demand is slowing.
- Numerator data: everyday goods up ~2.4% YoY in December 2025; month-over-month increases over the prior seven months.
- Headline CPI inflation ~2.7% YoY; core inflation (excluding food & energy) ~2.6%, as of December 2025.
- Blue Yonder survey: 85% of U.S. consumers cutting back due to grocery inflation.
- Private labels captured 21% U.S. grocery market share in 2025; they grew ~4.4% vs. national brands’ ~1.1%.
- Consumers now prioritize product ingredient health, fresh produce, GLP-1 related appetite shifts, traceability; regulatory traceability requirements increasing under FSMA.
- Brands are increasingly using agentic AI, unified data, micro-personalization to capture shifting consumer attention and drive ROI.