- SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic could drive a record U.S. mega-IPO wave in 2026, potentially totaling nearly $3 trillion in value.
- SpaceX, valued around $800B privately and powered by Starlink, is seen targeting a mid-2026 IPO that could raise $25–30B at a $1–1.5T valuation.
- OpenAI is valued near $500B with revenue accelerating, but massive compute and infrastructure spend may delay profitability and push listing timing to late 2026 or later.
- Anthropic, valued about $300–350B, is leaning into enterprise AI and safety with rapid revenue growth, though regulatory and market conditions could reshape IPO timing and pricing.
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The coming year may mark a historic turning point for the public equity market, driven by high-profile tech companies in AI and space preparing for mega-IPOs. Based on public filings, private market valuations, and growth estimates, SpaceX, OpenAI, and Anthropic are positioning themselves for public debuts that could collectively reshape investor access to frontier technologies.
SpaceX emerges as the front-runner with its Starlink business providing recurring revenue and accelerating growth. Revenue for 2025 is projected at ~$15 billion, rising to $22-24 billion in 2026. The company’s last private valuation was around $800 billion. Analysts believe it could raise $25-30 billion in a public offering targeting a valuation of $1-1.5 trillion, depending on market conditions. The timing is likely in mid-2026.
OpenAI has broken new ground with a $6.6 billion secondary share sale valuing it at $500 billion—the highest among private companies. Its recurring revenue has grown to ~$12 billion, with expectations upwards of $20 billion by year-end 2025. However, its spending is immense, projected to exceed $100 billion over several years, pushing public listing considerations into late 2026 or 2027 due to both opportunity and scale.
Anthropic is focusing on enterprise clients, safety, and efficiency. With $350 billion in valuation in recent funding, its projections for 2026 revenue are in the $25–26 billion range if its growth continues. It is seen as possibly closer to breaking even than OpenAI, though the structural costs of AI model training, cloud usage, and compute intensity may still be significant.
Risks & strategic considerations:
- Market risk: Macro uncertainty, regulatory pressures (especially around AI safety and anti-monopoly), and overall IPO market sentiment could derail timing or reduce valuations.
- Profitability vs growth trade-off: All companies are scaling fast with heavy capital expenditures; long-term profitability is not yet assured, especially for OpenAI whose losses are projected to stretch into 2028 or beyond.
- Valuation benchmarks: Comparisons to prior large IPOs (e.g. Saudi Aramco) highlight how these offerings might set new records but also the challenge of validating such high valuations against public market expectations.
- Investor appetite and institutional coordination: For IPOs of this scale, underwriters will need to secure large allocations from sovereign funds, pension funds, and funds with long DCG (deep pockets). SpaceX’s bank “bake-off” suggests active preparation.
Open questions:
- Will SpaceX’s Starlink margins and cash flow sustain its bullish valuation claims and investor expectations?
- How will OpenAI navigate its expenses in infrastructure, model R&D, and cloud compute to present a credible path to profitability?
- What degree of regulatory scrutiny will these companies face as they shift from private to public, especially in AI safety, data privacy, and competition law?
- How receptive will retail investors be in comparison to institutional demand for IPOs of this magnitude, and what discounts/lockups will be required to ensure stability?
Supporting Notes
- OpenAI achieved a $500 billion valuation through a secondary share sale, surpassing SpaceX as the world’s most valuable private company.
- OpenAI’s annual recurring revenue hit ~$12 billion with projections aiming for $20 billion+ by end of 2025.
- SpaceX is forecasting revenue of roughly $15 billion in 2025 and $22–24 billion in 2026, driven largely by Starlink, and hosts a private valuation around $800 billion.
- SpaceX aims to raise between $25–30 billion in its IPO, targeting a valuation in the $1-1.5 trillion range.
- Anthropic holds a valuation between $300-350 billion, with 2026 revenue estimates in the $25-26 billion range and enterprise growth acceleration.
- OpenAI and Anthropic are engaging in IPO prep work: from restructuring (e.g., OpenAI becoming a public benefit corporation) to hiring law firms (e.g., Wilson Sonsini for Anthropic), but are early in the process.
- Motive Technologies has filed S-1 to list as “MTVE” on NYSE, backed by lead managers such as JPMorgan, Citigroup, Barclays, and Jefferies; revenue rose ~22% year-over-year to $327 million for the nine months ended Sept 30, 2025.
- OpenAI’s projected losses remain large; it forecasts operating losses, and its cost base (compute, infrastructure) is expected to rise dramatically through 2028.