U.S. M&A Slumps in November 2025: Big Deals Lift Value While Volumes Fall

The November 2025 FactSet report reveals a clear dichotomy between monthly momentum and annual direction in the U.S. M&A market. Month-over-month, dealmaking slowed markedly with a 24.8 % drop in announced deals and a 13.7 % fall in aggregate spending from October. However, the longer-term, year-over-year view shows a market that is grappling with uneven sectoral performance—some areas accelerating, others retrenching.

Sectors gaining ground included Technology Services, Commercial Services, Non-Energy Minerals, Industrial Services, Miscellaneous, and Retail Trade. These sectors are likely benefitting from strategic priorities tied to AI, infrastructure, supply chain realignment, and sustainable raw materials. Conversely, sectors like Finance, Producer Manufacturing, Distribution Services, Consumer Services, and Health Technology saw the steepest volume declines—reflecting continued pressure on financial regulatory risk, manufacturing cost, consumer demand, and technological disruption imparted through health tech.

Complementary data from EY underscores that while deal volume is down in many cases, deal value is rising substantially. Deals above US$100 m rose ~50 % year-to-date, and value for those above US$1 b more than doubled year-over-year in November. Technology, healthcare, and consumer saw particularly strong value growth, even where volume was flat or down. This suggests that although fewer transactions are closing, those that are involve larger strategic plays—either megadeals or asset consolidations.

Global reports provide additional context: the Americas (led by the U.S.) saw deal value jump roughly 25-30 % for much of 2025, while volume has been flat or modestly down in many regions. The industrial, technology/media/telecom (TMT), healthcare, and energy sectors emerged as hotspots globally, whereas materials, consumer, and some cross‐border exposed sectors lagged,,,. Regulatory uncertainty, higher cost of capital (though easing), and trade policy remain headwinds particularly for smaller or cross-border transactions.

Strategically, acquirers are focusing on scale, digital transformation (especially AI), resilient cash flow, and sectors less exposed to tariff or policy volatility. Private equity remains active but is deploying capital more selectively, emphasizing deals with clear defensibility and long-term value capture. Going into 2026, key variables that will shape M&A activity include interest rate policy (especially any Fed cuts), regulatory clarity (cross-border, antitrust, health policy), demand in AI and diagnostic or infrastructure technologies, and the resilience of sectors facing economic pressure.

Open questions include: whether the pipeline of megadeals can offset volume shortfalls; how regulatory and trade risks will evolve under the current administration; whether rate cuts materialize and deliver meaningful financing relief; and how global macro-shocks (e.g. supply chain, inflation, labor costs) will influence acquirer risk appetites.