- Analysts have a consensus “Hold” on DigitalBridge (DBRG) with 1 sell, 6 hold, 4 buy and an average 12-month target of about $16.22.
- Q3 CY2025 revenue fell to $3.82M and badly missed estimates due to negative carried interest, despite EPS around $0.09.
- Core fundamentals improved with FEEUM near $40.7B and fee revenue up roughly 20% YoY, highlighting the gap between fee growth and reported revenue.
- A SoftBank cash acquisition at $16 per share (announced Dec 29, 2025) plus high institutional ownership and a token $0.01 quarterly dividend frame the near-term valuation.
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DigitalBridge’s latest earnings report disclosed a paradox: while its core management business (fee-earning assets under management and fee revenue) is growing healthily, total revenues cratered due to negative carried interest effects. Q3 CY2025 saw fee revenue of approximately $93 million, yet total revenues collapsed to $3.82 million—a massive miss relative to ~$100 million consensus projections.
Key value drivers like FEEUM (~$40.7B) continue their upward trajectory, suggesting strong underlying asset flows and investor confidence in the long-term mega-trend of digital infrastructure. However, revenue volatility—especially tied to carried interest—makes quarterly comparability weak and introduces earnings risk.[0reddit15]
Analyst sentiment is cautious despite these strengths. The “Hold” consensus and target price near $16.22 reflect balanced positions: some see value at this price (especially with an acquisition offer in play), others see risk in the disconnect between fee growth and realized revenues.
Strategically, the confirmed acquisition by SoftBank (announced Dec 29, 2025) at $16 per share introduces a key inflection point. This premium aligns closely with current valuation and analyst expectations. It may limit upside beyond that price until deal closes (expected in H2 2026), unless there is rerating due to outperformance. [0news13]
Open questions include: will negative carried interest be a recurring drag, or was Q3 an outlier? How will SoftBank integration affect DBRG’s operating model and margin profile? Does the high institutional ownership signal conviction or potential lock-in risk leading up to deal closure?
Supporting Notes
- In Q3 CY2025 DBRG reported just $3.82 million in revenue, a YoY decline of ~95%, missing analyst expectations by ~96% due to carried interest drag.
- EPS (GAAP) was ~$0.09 per share, slightly below some analyst forecasts (~$0.10), but still above older consensus for some peer sources.[0search0]
- FEEUM was reported at ~$40.7 billion, up ~18-20% YoY; fee revenue up ~20-22% YoY while principal investment income also rose, though smaller in absolute size.[0reddit15]
- Analyst coverage: 1 sell, 6 hold, 4 buy; average target price $16.22.
- Institutional ownership is ~92.7%; recent stakes added by Azora Capital, Long Pond Capital, and Norges Bank.
- Dividend per share declared at $0.01 per quarter (annualized ~$0.04), yield ~0.3%; payout ratio ~66.7%.
- Market capitalization around $2.8 billion; PE ratio extremely high (~255.8 on last reported EPS). Shares trading near 52-week high (~$15.35 vs high ~$15.55).
- SoftBank acquisition deal announced December 29, 2025: DBRG to be acquired for ~$4 billion, $16 per share cash. Expected close in H2 2026; DBRG to operate independently under current CEO. [0news13]