- European M&A deal value has trended down or flat since 2018 even when deal counts recover, leaving 2024 values well below the 2021 peak.
- Financial services led 2024 volume with 784 deals (+22% YoY) and disclosed value rising to €52.0bn, though banking value fell.
- Emerging/CEE deal counts hit a five-year high (1,281; +8%) but total value dropped about 31% to €25.7bn as mega-deals disappeared and average deal size shrank.
- Overall activity skews toward smaller, risk-averse transactions amid higher financing costs and valuation gaps, with a value rebound hinging on renewed confidence and megadeals.
Read More
The primary article highlights a multi-year slowdown in the value of European M&A activity since around 2018, even as the number of deals intermittently peaked—in particular volume peaked in 2021. While key numbers are masked, the narrative aligns with external reporting.
Multiple authoritative sources corroborate the broad dynamics:
- Financial services M&A in Europe rebounded in 2024 in terms of volume—to nine year highs—but value remains far lower than recent peaks and the banking subsector saw value decline even with more deals.
- In Emerging and Central & Eastern European markets, deal counts rose in 2024 over 2023 (e.g. 1,281 vs 1,186 deals), but total deal value dropped sharply—≈ 30% in Emerging Europe—with the absence of mega-deals being a key factor in the decline.
- Broad Europe-wide trends: according to PwC, aggregate deal values increased modestly in 2024 vs 2023, but volumes fell by almost 17%. Moreover, the number of large-scale deals (> US$1 bn) increased, boosting average deal size, while mid-market and smaller deals remain weak.
Strategic implications include:
- Advisory firms and investment banks may see rising demand for financial services, energy & utilities, and cross-border transactions, particularly in regions where domestic deal flow is solid (e.g. Emerging Europe).
- Regulation and valuation dynamics mean that executing large transformational deals may remain difficult; serialization of smaller deals and bolt-ons may be the path forward until macroeconomic tailwinds (rate cuts, inflation control) improve.
- Stakeholders should watch for signals of resurgence: a recovery in megadeals, easing of interest rates, and stronger confidence among strategic buyers and private equity funds. Lack of these may prolong low-value plateau despite active deal counts.
Supporting Notes
- In 2024, Europe’s financial services sector recorded 784 publicly disclosed deals—highest annual volume since 2015—up from 643 in 2023.
- Total disclosed value in that sector rose from €36.3 billion in 2023 to €52.0 billion in 2024, though banking sub-sector value declined.
- Emerging Europe deal volume rose by 8% to 1,281 deals in 2024 vs 2023, reaching a five-year high.
- Aggregate deal value in Emerging Europe dropped ≈ 30.9 % to €25.72 billion in 2024, accompanied by a drop in average deal size from ~€31.4 million to ~€20.1 million.
- PWC data show that while deal values in Europe rose slightly in 2024 vs 2023, deal volumes fell by around 17%. Also, number of US‐dollar deals over $1 billion increased, lifting averages despite weak mid-market demand.
- In Central & Eastern Europe, inbound deal volume was stable or rising (e.g. Romania, Poland, Austria), but value was driven by only a few large deals; many countries’ values were down significantly.