- U.S. manufacturing has staged a modest, uneven rebound, with employment up to about 12.6 million in 2024 largely because the number of plants has grown while workers per plant keep falling.
- Gains are concentrated in a few subindustries—especially food and beverage, chemicals, and transportation equipment—while many others continue to shrink.
- Recent output and utilization data point to tepid momentum, with weak new orders and exports, tariff-driven cost pressures, and some employment declines in 2025.
- Automation and capital equipment spending is strong in select niches, but widening manufactured-goods trade deficits suggest reshoring has not broadly restored competitiveness.
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The ‘‘renaissance’’ of U.S. manufacturing is better characterized as a partial, uneven recovery rather than a wholesale revival. According to the St. Louis Fed, manufacturing employment crept up from its post‐2010 trough to about 12.6 million in 2024, and the number of establishments rose from ~336,000 in early 2014 to ~401,000 by year end 2024. Without that increase in establishments, employment would have been roughly 2 million lower.
However, automation and productivity gains are limiting hiring within each facility: average employment per establishment has steadily declined. Some subindustries are thriving—food, beverage & tobacco; chemicals; transportation equipment—while many others are shrinking. For example, eleven subindustries saw negative employment growth from 2014‐24.
Output data from 2025 suggest soft or mixed signals. Industrial production rose 0.1–0.9% year‐over‐year in several months, with durable goods showing small gains and nondurable goods lagging; motor vehicle production has been a frequent bright spot. Capacity utilization remains 1–2 percentage points below long‐run averages. [2, 4, 11]
Additional headwinds: manufacturing employment fell by about 49,000 jobs between February and September 2025; trade deficits in manufactured goods widened; durable‐goods shipments excluding aircraft declined; and PMI readings are subdued or in contraction. Tariffs raise input costs and introduce uncertainty even as some firms benefit from protectionist policies. [3, 5, 11]
Conversely, capital equipment and automation demand are strong in specific niches. Orders for metalworking machinery, robotics (including collaborative robots), and defense/space and business equipment have shown double‐digit year‐over‐year gains. These investments are both responses to constraints (labor shortages, cost pressure) and attempts to reposition for competitiveness.
Strategic implications:
- Manufacturers should target subindustries with structural tailwinds (e.g. food & beverage, chemicals, transportation equipment) and avoid overextending in sectors with weak demand or high exposure to import competition.
- Investments in automation and robotics are vital not just for productivity, but as buffers against labor shortages and tariff cost shocks.
- Policymakers aiming to boost manufacturing jobs need to address not just output, but skills development, supply chain resilience, and trade policy consistency.
Open questions:
- How sustainable are demand side drivers—both domestic and foreign? Weak export demand and falling new orders suggest potential for further softness.
- Will trade policies (tariffs, subsidies, regulatory changes) align long enough to spur investment, or will uncertainty continue to reduce risk appetite?
- Can workforce supply (skilled labor, vocational training) keep pace with automation and reshoring demands without inflating costs?
- How will inflation, energy, and raw material input costs evolve—these are decisive in many industries’ margins and competitiveness?
Supporting Notes
- Manufacturing employment stood at ~12.6 million in 2024, about 9.3% of private‐sector employment, up from ~11.5 million in 2010.
- Manufacturing establishments increased from ~336,000 at start of 2014 to ~401,000 in Q4 2024; this growth explains ~2 million excess jobs compared to a counterfactual with establishment counts fixed at 2014 levels.
- Average employment per manufacturing establishment fell steadily; in 2024, it was ~32 workers per establishment. By comparison, retail establishments averaged ~15 workers; real estate/rental & leasing averaged fewer than five.
- Between 2014‐2024, subindustries that drove most gains included food manufacturing (19% of establishment growth, 49% of employment growth), chemical manufacturing, beverage & tobacco, transportation equipment. Others had negative growth or negligible contributions.
- Industrial production year‐over‐year rose 0.9% in August 2025; manufacturing output up 0.2%; motor vehicles & parts production rebounded ~2.6% after prior decline. [2, 11]
- Manufacturing employment fell ~49,000 jobs between February and September 2025. Durable goods shipments excluding aircraft down ~$5.7 billion over first nine months of 2025 vs same period in 2024. Trade deficit in manufactured goods increased significantly over same timeframe.
- Manufacturing PMI in December 2025 was ~47.9 (contraction) from ISM; another survey (S&P Global) showed slight expansion but with new orders and export demand soft and business confidence deteriorating.
- Metalworking machinery orders for North America for first nine months of 2025 totaled ~$3.93 billion, up ~17.3% versus same period in 2024; robot orders rising similarly; strong orders in food/consumer goods jump (~105% YOY), automotive OEM up ~68%.