- Value-seeking is now a structural consumer norm worldwide, constraining volume and pricing power even among higher-income shoppers.
- CPG companies are responding by simplifying portfolios, tightening costs, and concentrating investment on fewer, higher-value growth categories.
- Deglobalization, trade-policy costs, and slower growth (notably in China) are intensifying pressure alongside rising private-label and retailer leverage.
- AI is becoming core infrastructure to boost productivity, speed innovation and marketing, and adapt to AI-driven consumer discovery and personalization.
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The 2026 Consumer Products Industry Global Outlook from Deloitte paints a picture of an industry at a turning point. The shocks of recent years—inflation, supply chain disruption, geopolitical tension—have eroded consumer trust and sharply shifted spending behavior. Eating out, premium discretionary purchases, and sheer product variety are no longer guaranteed value propositions; instead, consumers demand brands that deliver more perceivable value—for price paid—and are increasingly willing to trade breadth or convenience for cost savings. This value-seeking behavior is substantial: 47% of consumers globally fall into this category, including 35% among high-income households.
In response, consumer packaged goods (CPG) companies are being forced to rethink long-held operating models. The conventions of scale, optimization, and broad portfolios are being replaced with strategies that favor agility, focus, and speed. According to Deloitte, firms are divesting low-growth or misaligned categories, consolidating SKUs, and placing greater emphasis on categories with growth potential. Deglobalization and trade policy pressures are compelling companies to localize production, de-risk trade-sensitive operations, and reassess exposure to cross-border costs.
Macroeconomic conditions intensify the pressure. Multiple reports confirm elevated frugality, even among higher-income and traditionally resilient consumer segments. Deloitte’s findings are corroborated by AlixPartners, whose 2026 Global Consumer Outlook shows a deepened pullback in spending intent globally—including a significant swing in China from projected net spending increase in 2025 to a projected net decrease in 2026. Food and beverage players also face headwinds from regulatory pressures, changes in health behavior, and shrinking discretionary spend.
AI emerges in Deloitte’s analysis as both a necessity and a differentiator. Companies are investing heavily to boost productivity (often without hiring commensurately more staff), to simplify organization, to accelerate innovation, and to rewire value chains in ways that allow intelligent collaboration with retailers. Consumers themselves are adopting AI—both in research and purchase journeys—forcing brands to rethink discovery strategies (moving toward generative commerce).
Retailers are seizing structural advantages. They are gaining leverage through private-label expansion, ownership of consumer data, and control over emerging revenue streams like retail media. CPG firms must therefore consider deeper partnerships, more transparency, and jointly created value propositions or risk ceding power and margin.
Strategic implications for executives in 2026 are robust: sharpen portfolio focus; invest in AI not as a novelty but as infrastructure; double down on value-for-price across all touchpoints; localize operations to manage trade cost risks; and treat relationships with retailers as central, not auxiliary. Companies that fail to adapt may see erosion in market share, shrinking margins, and diminished relevance.
Supporting Notes
- 47% of global consumers describe themselves as value seekers—making cost, deals, and convenience key purchase drivers.
- Only about one-third of brands currently achieve “more value for the price” (MVP) status, despite MVP brands showing higher purchase intent and gaining household share.
- About 70% of executives expect finding high-growth opportunities outside traditional markets, especially in Southeast Asia (39%) and India (32%).
- Over half of survey respondents believe rising trade policy–related costs will force price increases, though 52% worry that doing so may hurt volume or market share.
- 59% of executives are outsourcing core functions or forming centers of excellence to simplify structures and enhance agility.
- 64% of companies think they’re ahead of competitors in adopting agentic AI, while 31% say they’re struggling to engage consumers who use generative AI for product discovery.
- AlixPartners reports that global net intent to reduce spending (versus increase) for 2026 has worsened by over 60%, reaching -18 percentage points.
- Even high-income households globally are planning spending pullbacks—China flips from +10 ppt net intent in 2025 to -8 ppt in 2026.
- NIQ data: clean label purchases rising +7.5% in the U.S., faster than average FMCG growth (~+5.9%); 40% of global consumers report spending cautiously despite marginal improvements in inflation.
- EY findings: 78% of retailers believe only one mass-market brand per category will remain long-term, rest of shelf space going to private-labels or niche/premium brands.