- Goldman’s Q4 2025 consensus EPS has been revised up to about $11.69, helped by a roughly $0.46/share boost from exiting the Apple Card program and stronger advisory expectations.
- In 2025 Goldman led global M&A, advising on 38 of 68 $10B+ deals, taking about 32% of total deal value and earning roughly $4.6B in fees.
- The firm is accelerating its shift away from consumer lending while expanding Asset & Wealth Management to about $3.5T in assets under supervision.
- Shares near record highs (~$950, ~70% up YoY) reflect optimism around deal activity and regulatory easing, leaving valuation sensitive to execution and market swings.
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As of mid-January 2026, analysts have raised expectations for Goldman Sachs’ upcoming Q4 2025 earnings, targeting approximately $11.69 in diluted EPS. While this marks a modest year-over-year decline from Q4 2024—when Goldman reported $11.95/share—it reflects significant operating leverage and one-time tailwinds including the liberated Apple Card loan loss reserves and reduced consumer credit losses.
Goldman’s strength is rooted in its advisory franchise. LSEG data shows Goldman topped global M&A in 2025, advising on $1.48 trillion in deal value—32% market share—leading in both the number and value of megadeals (>$10B), earning $4.6B in fees. This places Goldman well ahead of peers such as JPMorgan and Morgan Stanley in fee income growth, especially for global cross-border, AI infrastructure, and energy-transition themed transactions.
The firm’s strategic retreat from consumer finance is accelerating. Goldman is transferring the Apple Card program—including over $20B of card balances—to JPMorgan, which boosts Q4 2025 EPS by ~$0.46 due to loan loss reserve reversals, albeit partially offset by revenue markdowns and associated costs. Simultaneously, its AWM segment now oversees ~$3.5 trillion in assets under supervision, a high-margin, more stable revenue base attracting greater investor attention.
Regulatory and macro-financial tailwinds are supporting this rise. Easing leverage rules under U.S. regulation (especially the enhanced supplementary leverage ratio) and expectations of softer Basel III implementation are freeing up capital for banks like Goldman to increase underwriting and deal activity. Goldman’s stock reflects these positives: closing near record levels in early January (~$950) and up about 70% in the past year.
However, key risks remain, including antitrust pressures—especially over tech deals—rate volatility that could impact cost of capital and underwriting margin, regulatory surprises in consumer finance oversight due to the Apple Card transition, and the challenge of sustaining high margins in investment banking amid increased competition. Any mis‐execution in cost control or failure to deliver on deal backlog could trigger downside from current valuation multiples.
Strategic implications for investors include favoring firms with dominant advisory franchises and large, high-quality AWM or fee-based segments, especially if regulatory frameworks stay loose and deal pipelines stay full. Peers lagging in these dimensions (e.g., boutique banks, or those still heavily invested in consumer finance) face competitive compression and valuation risk.
Supporting Notes
- Q4 2025 EPS consensus estimate revised to ~$11.69/share; up ~6% over last 30 days.
- Apple Card exit adds ~$0.46/share via release of $2.48B in loan loss reserves; offsets include ~$2.26B net revenue decline and $38M in costs.
- Goldman advised on 38 of 68 global megadeals (> $10B) in 2025; earned ~$4.6B in M&A advisory fees; controlled ~32% share of total deal value.
- Asset & Wealth Management now oversees approx. $3.5 trillion in assets under supervision.
- Goldman Sachs stock recently closed near $950 in early January 2026; approx. 70% return over trailing twelve months; record highs seen around Jan 6-9 at ~$955.47.
- Regulatory relief: US bank regulators have eased leverage and capital requirements (notably the enhanced supplementary leverage ratio), reducing required capital for some assets and subsidiaries, effective April 1, 2026 (with optional early adoption).