- Kiplinger expects U.S. GDP growth to hold near 2% in 2026–2027, supported by resilient consumers, AI-driven investment, exports, and government spending.
- Housing and broader construction remain a key drag, and slower wage gains plus tariff uncertainty could cap momentum.
- Outside forecasts bracket Kiplinger, from about 1.6% (OECD) to 2.6% (Goldman Sachs), reflecting differing views on tax cuts, tariffs, and labor-market cooling.
- SIFMA sees roughly 2.2% 4Q/4Q growth in 2026 with inflation still above target and one to two Fed rate cuts likely.
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The Kiplinger forecast builds its 2% growth prediction around several pillars: strong (but moderating) consumer demand, significant investment related to artificial intelligence and intellectual property, growing exports, and steady government spending. In 3Q 2025, U.S. GDP rose 4.3% annualized, but construction—particularly housing and nonresidential—remained weak.
Contrasting projections from leading institutions show a range of outcomes. Goldman Sachs expects U.S. growth around 2.6% in 2026, aided by tax cuts, easier financial conditions, and reduced tariff drag. However, the OECD sees larger risks: it forecasts a slowing to 1.6% growth in 2026, citing weaker employment growth, tariff effects, and fiscal constraints.
The SIFMA economist survey further refines the outlook: median forecasts hover around 2.2% 4Q/4Q GDP growth in 2026, with inflation remaining above target and expectations of modest Fed rate easing. Meanwhile, other analysts like those at Morgan Stanley view a baseline of ~1.8%, with upside if AI and consumption outperform or downside if inflation or policy disruptions persist.
Strategic implications for investors, corporates, and policymakers include:
- If AI-related capex continues to accelerate, both productivity and corporate profitability could receive a material boost, potentially pushing growth above consensus.
- Tariff policy remains a key uncertainty: further trade tensions or tariff passthrough to prices could weigh on real consumption and inflation, especially for lower-income households.
- The housing sector is likely to remain a drag—high rates, weak affordability, and elevated costs limit the upside there.
- Monetary policy is likely to shift toward easing, but pace and timing will depend heavily on inflation trends and labor market strength.
Open questions include:
- How much of AI investment already baked into forecasts versus future upside?
- Will tariff impact be more muted through regulation or more severe via inflation spillovers?
- When and how large will fed funds rate cuts be, given inflation above target?
- How resilient will consumer spending be if wage growth remains sluggish?
Supporting Notes
- Kiplinger projects moderate 2% U.S. GDP growth in 2026–2027; 2025 annual growth estimated at ~2.1% after a sharp 4.3% rate in Q3 2025.
- Kiplinger cites strong consumer spending, AI investment, exports, and government expenditures as growth drivers; notes persistent weakness in housing and nonresidential construction.
- Goldman Sachs forecasts 2.6% U.S. growth in 2026, helped by tax cuts, easier financial conditions, and tapering tariff drag; global GDP projected at ~2.8%.
- OECD expects U.S. growth to slow to 1.6% in 2026, due to cooling job growth, slower immigration, tariff pass-through, and cuts in non-defense discretionary spending.
- SIFMA median forecast is 4Q/4Q GDP growth of 2.2% for 2026; inflation expectations remain above target (core PCE ~2.5% in Q4 2026); one to two rate cuts anticipated.
- Morgan Stanley’s baseline forecast is ~1.8% growth for 2026; notes consumer spending strength and AI capex as upside, but risks from tariffs and immigration persist.
- In 3Q 2025, exports surged (8.8%) and consumer spending rose 3.5%; housing and residential investment subtracted from GDP growth.
- Inflation remains elevated: headline PCE rose 3.4% annualized in 3Q 2025; core inflation (ex-food/energy) above Fed target.