- RIA M&A hit a new high in 2025 (~273 deals by late October) and could top 300, with momentum pointing to another strong year in 2026.
- Succession needs from aging owners and scale-seeking younger founders are keeping seller supply robust, often via sell-and-stay arrangements.
- Private equity-backed platforms dominate buyers, with more equity/earn-out structures plus growth in sub-acquisitions and minority stakes.
- Recession, market volatility, inflation/sticky rates, or tighter credit could force repricings or slow 2026 deal flow despite supportive tailwinds like expected rate cuts.
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The RIA (registered investment advisor) M&A sector entered 2025 with significant momentum—a momentum that by late in the year has established new benchmarks. By October 2025 the industry recorded roughly 273 transactions—surpassing the entire 2024 total of 272—placing the sector on a clear path to clear the 300-deal mark for the first time in its history.
Aging advisors and lack of generational succession are among the most stable supply-side drivers. According to ThinkAdvisor, many current RIA owners are in their mid-50s to 60s and are increasingly considering exit options not limited to retirements, but sell-and-stay arrangements that preserve continuity while moving toward succession. Younger founders in their 40s and 50s are also viewing M&A as a way to gain scale, operational support, and access to capital and infrastructure. [ThinkAdvisor primary source; corroborated by InvestmentNews]
On the acquirer side, the landscape is crowded and competitive. Private equity is deeply involved, backing many of the largest consolidators and platforms. Deal structures are evolving: pure cash deals are less common, with equity stakes, earn-outs, and retention bonuses becoming standard tools to bridge valuation and stay‐on incentives. [ThinkAdvisor primary source; also noted in InvestmentNews]
Industry segmentation is shifting. Mid-sized sellers (US$500M-US$1B AUM) are increasing their share; large sellers ($1-5B AUM) remain attractive; small sellers (<$500M) are decreasing in market share. Sub-acquisitions—where recently acquired firms make acquisitions themselves—along with minority investment transactions are growing sharply.
Looking to 2026, macroeconomic conditions offer both support and potential friction. Optimistic scenarios include continued monetary easing, fiscal stimulus (including legislation dubbed the “One Big Beautiful Bill Act”), generalized economic growth of ~2-2.5%, and strength in AI‐related capex.[0news15]
However, warning signs are meaningful. Rising or sticky inflation, potential credit constraints, valuation mismatches, and fears of recession or market drawdowns could cause repricing of deals, paused deals, or even cancellations of LOIs, especially in deals signed during more favorable conditions. Deal size growth may slow, even as overall volume remains strong.[1search4][1search0][1search8]
Strategic implications for RIAs, their investors, and consolidators include:
- Sellers must focus on clean financials, scalable operations, compensation and retention models that support sustained value, not just a one-time exit. Equity, retention, and earn-out clauses will be critical elements in deal structure.
- Buyers (especially consolidators) must manage integration risk carefully, sustain capital discipline, and offer attractive propositions to sellers beyond price—culture, autonomy, growth potential matter.
- Private equity needs to monitor leverage and valuation risk in an environment where rate cuts are expected but inflation and credit cost remain uncertain. Deal pipelines must account for macro stress tests.
- Regulatory and policy risks—tariffs, labor market rules, tax policy—are nontrivial. RIAs should build flexibility into forecasts and avoid over dependence on favorable credit conditions or valuation multiples.
Open questions remain: To what extent will external economic shocks (geopolitical, inflation, credit) force bargain renegotiations or postponed deals? Will valuations compress appreciably if rate cuts do not materialize as hoped? How sustainable is the expansion into minority and sub-acquisition models over multiple years, particularly for acquired sellers acting as acquirers?
Supporting Notes
- In the first half of 2025, there were 132 RIA M&A transactions totaling US$182.7 billion in AUM, a ~25% increase YoY, according to Fidelity.
- Devoe & Company counted ~273 deals completed by October 28, 2025—surpassing all of 2024’s total of 272—with Q3 being the most active single quarter (94 transactions).
- Mid-sized RIAs (US$500 million to US$1 billion) made 59 deals by September, exceeding their full-year 2024 total and representing 24% of all sellers in 2025 so far.
- Sub-acquisitions are now nearly one-third of all RIA M&A deals in first three quarters of 2025; minority investments represent 14% of deal volume—a high not seen since 2020.
- According to ThinkAdvisor, average founder/partner age is about 55-60, driving urgency for succession planning, but many want to stay on post-transaction, often 3+ years, with acquirers offering equity stakes rather than pure cash. [ThinkAdvisor primary source]
- EY-Parthenon projects US deal volume for transactions over US$100 million will grow ~9% in 2025 and ~3% in 2026; deal value is up ~36% over 2024, driven by large deals. [EY report] [1search0]
- Survey by SRS Acquiom: 74% of M&A professionals expect deal volume to increase in 2026; uncertainty around deal size is greater, with 44% citing volatility in deal size. [1search8]
- Eyes on macro risks: interest rates, trade policies, inflation, credit availability are frequently cited headwinds; some observers warn that rising costs and volatile markets could force deal repricings or slow the pace. [1search4][1search8]