US M&A Sees Big-Deal Value Surge in 2025 — But Volume & Risks Still Block Growth

The Statista dataset (“Monthly value of M&A deals in the U.S. from January 2022 to January 2025”) shows wide monthly swings in deal values, with a high point in January 2025 and lower plateaus in parts of 2023–2024 [1]. Without exact values (premium dataset), the trend is clear: after a dip, deal dollar values began climbing ahead of 2025.

EY-Parthenon’s Deal Barometer (Oct 2025) corroborates this upward value momentum: U.S. deal value is up ~36% year-to-date vs 2024 [2][6], largely due to more large deals. Deals exceeding US$1 billion now represent ~27% of volume in 2025 vs ~22% pre-pandemic [2][6]. The corporate sector’s M&A volume is estimated to conclude 2025 ~10% above 2024, while PE deal volume is up ~8% [2][6].

Volatility remains. Monthly peaks (such as in October 2025) show YoY deal value surges (e.g., +146.5%) paired with volume gains (~8–70%, depending on deal size band) [9]. But there’s evidence of lulls tied to policy uncertainty: changes in tariffs, regulatory shifts, and the timing of Fed rate cuts have repeatedly rattled deal timing [2][6][10].

Forecasts suggest continued growth in 2026. EY projects ~3% growth in deal volume (over US$100m deals) in 2026, following ~9–10% in 2025 [6]. PwC notes more megadeals, a depressed mid-market deal count, and AI-themed deal acceleration [7]. These indicate a market increasingly driven by large, strategic, transformative transactions, likely in tech, life sciences, platforms, and other innovation sectors.

Strategic implications: Investment banks, legal and financial advisors should position for large deals and AI/tech-adjacent M&A. Corporates seeking growth may shift focus to capabilities acquisition rather than simply scale. PE sponsors will look closely at valuation alignment, exit paths, and financing cost. Risks include regulation (antitrust, trade policies), inflation, interest rates, and macro shocks.

Open questions remain: What specific deal value trends by month in H2 2025 (to see seasonality)? Will tightening or easing monetary policy dominate? How will sectors like energy, infrastructure, or sustainability perform relative to tech and healthcare? And how resilient will mid-market deal volume be under global uncertainty?