- Goldman Sachs traders highlight Roblox, Visa, Mastercard, and DoorDash as “fallen angel” tech names with solid fundamentals despite share price underperformance.
- They argue these laggards could benefit from broadening market leadership beyond mega-cap AI stocks, especially if investors rotate into underowned tech.
- Supportive macro assumptions include non-recessionary global growth, expected Fed rate cuts, and resilient consumer spending that favor rate-sensitive small and mid caps.
- Key risks center on margin pressure, heavy investment needs, regulatory and antitrust scrutiny, and the uncertain timing and strength of any risk-on rotation.
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In late December 2025, Goldman Sachs traders issued a noteworthy strategy call: monitor tech companies previously favored by markets but whose stock prices have lagged in recent months. These “fallen angels” include Roblox (RBLX), Visa (V), Mastercard (MA), and DoorDash (DASH), each of which has underperformed its high-water marks yet retains structural strengths. [1][4] Goldman argues that while mega-cap AI leaders continue to dominate headlines and returns, leadership is beginning to broaden—tech names outside the Magnificent Seven may become beneficiaries of a risk-on rotation as we enter 2026. [2][3][4]
What backs this thesis? First, these companies often combine solid revenue trajectories with potential non-GAAP earnings or strong free cash flows, despite near-term margin pressures. For example, Visa and Mastercard benefit from recovering cross-border travel and consumer spending, while DoorDash continues its push into grocery and convenience categories. [1] Roblox is investing heavily in infrastructure and safety but also targeting expansion into older age cohorts and international markets. [4]
Macro signals support opportunity. Goldman projects non-recessionary global growth of ~2.8% in 2026 coupled with expected rate cuts by the Fed. [1] Small- and mid-cap tech companies (including these laggards) tend to be more rate-sensitive, thus positioned to benefit if financing costs ease. Also, AI spending is accelerating, both in software and infrastructure, creating catalysts for companies with exposure beyond just model training or cloud computing dominance. [2][3]
Bottom-up risks remain non-trivial. Margin erosion from high fixed costs—e.g. AI infrastructure, security, regulatory compliance—is a common theme. DoorDash, for instance, is still exposed to labor regulation and local operator/fee compression. Visa and Mastercard face antitrust and interchange fee scrutiny, especially in the U.S. and EU. Roblox’s monetization and profitability remain challenged by content moderation and infrastructure scaling costs. [1][4]
Strategic Implications include opportunity for investors with strong risk tolerance to gain in underowned names whose valuation discount could shrink. It also suggests that portfolio allocations should begin to tilt toward diversification away from overconcentration in mega-caps. For corporates, partnerships across AI infrastructure, payment technologies, or logistics automation may yield advantage as well. However, these potential gains depend on successful execution and favorable macro trends.
Open Questions: Which fallen angels can actually deliver margin expansion first? What sort of regulatory changes will impact Visa and Mastercard? Can DoorDash’s expansion into grocery offset pressure in its core delivery business? Are rate cuts likely enough, and early enough, to trigger a broad-based rebound in lagging tech names? And finally, will investor sentiment rotate gradually, or are we likely to see sharp reversals (i.e., risk of whipsaw)?
Supporting Notes
- Goldman Sachs identifies Roblox, Visa, Mastercard, and DoorDash as tech stocks once highly prized but now well below their previous highs, labeling them “fallen angels” with attractively improving fundamentals. [1]
- The Nasdaq 100 rose about 22% in 2025 year-to-date, though Goldman sees returns front-loaded and signals that lagging names may outperform if trend broadens. [1]
- Goldman projects global growth of ~2.8% in 2026 and foresees non-recessionary conditions with expected Fed rate cuts, supporting small-/mid-cap and rate-sensitive laggards. [1]
- Visa and Mastercard have posted resilient earnings tied to consumer spending and cross-border travel recovery; however, their growth has normalized post-pandemic, and regulatory pressures weigh on valuation multiples. [1]
- Roblox is investing heavily in infrastructure and safety, which dampens near-term margins, but expanding into older demographics and international markets offers upside potential. [1]
- DoorDash remains exposed to regulatory risks including labor classification and local cap on fees, though its diversification into grocery and convenience strengthens revenue mix. [1]
Sources
- [1] roic.ai (Roic.ai) — 2025-12-24
- [2] www.goldmansachs.com (Goldman Sachs) — 2025-09-18
- [3] am.gs.com (Goldman Sachs Asset Management) — 2025-03-11
- [4] news.google.com (CNBC) — 2025-12-24
