Why 2025’s Big Trucking M&A Deals Are Failing — What’s Driving the Shift

The Trucking Dive roundup and corroborating sources reveal a bifurcated M&A environment in the U.S. trucking, logistics and food distribution sectors in 2025: while some companies remain emboldened in acquisition-led growth, others are pulling back amid rising headwinds. With economic uncertainty—especially around tariffs, regulation, and soft demand—many firms are choosing to stay independent or divest underperforming units rather than chase large consolidation.

Regulatory risk and tariff uncertainty contributed significantly to this push-pause behavior. TFI International explicitly withdrew from what it described as an attractive transaction due to “tariff uncertainty,” with its CEO Alain Bédard saying the company will keep its M&A activity “minimal” for the year [5]. Likewise, US Foods and Performance Food Group ended merger talks after formally considering potential synergies and regulatory hurdles, concluding that standalone operations better serve long-term shareholder return under current conditions [2][1].

Meanwhile, Schneider National underscores a forward-leaning growth posture. Its acquisition of Cowan Systems in late 2024 sparked accelerated growth in its dedicated trucking segment, which by Q3 2025 saw truckload revenue (excluding fuel surcharge) rise ~17 % year-over-year, driven in large part by increases in dedicated volume [3][5]. Schneider is signaling that while it believes scale matters—especially in specialty equipment, relay networks, and high-touch multi-stop retail configurations—it may not always sustain its ideal acquisition cadence given current market constraints [5].

DSV stands in contrast: after acquiring DB Schenker, it determined that USA Truck, part of the Schenker U.S. road operations, delivers persistent losses and does not align with its asset-light vision. As a result, it has launched a sales process, marked USA Truck as a discontinued operation, and absorbed a loss of ~$14 million in its most recent quarter [1][3].

Strategic Implications:

• Strong performers are still leveraging acquisitions in dedicated and specialized trucking, suggesting a premium opportunity in assets with defensible contracts, regional expertise, and specialized equipment [5][3].
• Companies with weaker profitability or more exposure to non-specialized segments are more likely to divest, de-risk, or operate independently rather than lead large consolidations [1][3][2].
• Regulatory risk—both antitrust and policy (tariffs, U.S.–Mexico-Canada trade agreements)—remains a critical gating factor in deal viability [2][5].
• Acquirers must build in strong stand-alone growth narratives, clear synergies, and manageable integration risk; deals that lack these elements are likely to be dropped or delayed [2][3].

Open Questions:

• How will anticipated changes in trade and tariff policy in 2026 modulate both cross-border and domestic deal making, especially for companies exposed to U.S.–Canada and U.S.–Mexico trade flows?
• Will capacity exits among smaller carriers lead to distressed asset opportunities in dedicated trucking, or trigger downward pressure on rates and margins?
• To what extent will regulators scrutinize large consolidations in foodservice distribution, especially in previously rejected deals like Sysco-US Foods, given concerns over competition and cost inflation?
• How will acquirers balance debt and cash, particularly given that several firms absorbing losses (e.g., DSV’s USA Truck) are being penalized for misaligned business models post-acquisition?