2026 Investment Themes: Inflation’s Grip, AI Infrastructure & Emerging Markets Surge

The primary content labeled “William Blair Thinking” is heavily thematic rather than anchored in a single article. It functions as a hub for the firm’s insights, gathering recent articles and research spanning equity research, macro themes, industry deep dives, private capital, and emerging markets. [2][3]

Recent dominant themes include: 1) inflation versus growth trade–offs heading into 2026; 2) the surge in AI infrastructure—data centers, chip supply chains, energy demand; 3) the reshaping of global trade and manufacturing via reshoring & policy shifts; and 4) emerging markets (EMs) regaining macroeconomic traction as the U.S. dollar softens.[1][4]

From a strategic investment banking perspective, these themes signal sectors likely to see heightened deal activity: energy, infrastructure, AI/semiconductors, and EM-centric companies. For instance, growth in U.S. LNG exports drives opportunities both upstream (project finance, EPC) and downstream (shipping, distribution networks). Similarly, smart retail & unattended payments represent M&A and capital raising areas as incumbents adapt.[1]

However, risks are nontrivial. Persisting high inflation puts pressure on interest rates and margins; geopolitical/policy risk—especially in trade policy, energy regulation, and EM governance—could disrupt expected rotations. The strong consumer in the U.S. may delay or distort these shifts if consumption remains resilient, slowing reallocation into overseas markets or capex-heavy sectors. Also, valuations in hot sectors like AI/data centers may already embed high expectations, raising the potential for correction.

Open questions for investors include: How durable are EM recoveries, particularly if U.S. rates or the dollar re-strengthen? What are the supply constraints or environmental/regulatory bottlenecks for AI build–outs, including energy capacity and semiconductor supply chains? How should portfolios balance inflation risk with growth exposure? And, what role will private capital and secondaries play in funding trans-sector transitions?