BCG Report 2025: Key Trends for CIB, AI, Non-bank Firms & Geopolitical Risk

The BCG report “Positioning for Growth in Uncertain Times” outlines a transforming CIB sector, driven by four structural shifts that have strategic implications for banks, investment portfolios, and regulatory-oversight bodies. First, the expansion of wallet share captured by non-bank financial institutions (NBFIs) is reshaping competitive dynamics. While in 2010 NBFIs made up under 5 % of CIB revenues, by 2024 that had risen to more than 15 %; BCG forecasts this will increase to over 20 % by 2030. This is pressing traditional banks to innovate across advisory, lending, and trading, or face disintermediation. [1][2]

Second, AI adoption is transitioning from narrow use-cases to enterprise-scale transformation. Key use areas include agentic AI (autonomous workflows), operations automation, and front-office augmentation. Projected productivity gains are significant—25-40 % for bankers, and 20-35 % in operations. These gains imply that early movers with strong data and infrastructure pipelines will enjoy material ROE advantages. [1][2]

Third, the landscape is being altered by rising geopolitical fragmentation, regulatory divergence, and shifts in global trade and capital flows. Banks are being forced to rethink booking hubs, compliance regimes, and trade corridors in response to tariffs, reserve shifts, and de-dollarization. Regions (EMEA, APAC) may see growing importance, while some traditional global hubs face erosion unless they adapt. [1]

Fourth, BCG sketches multiple scenarios toward 2030—“Base Case,” “Surge in Tech & Alts,” and “Shift to Regional Capital Markets”—each with different risks and opportunities. For example, under the Surge scenario, revenue share for NBFIs could increase sharply, and digital assets become a native component of offerings. Under the Regional Markets scenario, fragmentation intensifies and regulatory environments diverge materially. Leaders must therefore adopt flexible strategic models to hedge among possibilities. [1]

In sum, banks’ strategic choices over the next 12-24 months will deeply affect their competitive positioning out to 2030. Those that focus narrowly on core strengths, but also invest in high-return adjacencies and place selective bets on emerging areas, can expect to widen RoTE gaps by as much as 8 percentage points versus laggards. Failure to adapt—especially in AI capability, non-bank competition, regulatory agility—risks declining margins and revenue share loss. [1][2]