U.S. Furniture & Mattress Retail Outlook: Confidence High with Key Risks Ahead

The US furniture and mattress industry is demonstrating surprising resilience even as consumer sentiment has cooled and macro headwinds persist. According to Piper Sandler, average Black Friday sales in 2025 matched those in 2024, though this masks weaker results versus earlier holiday periods and reflects natural comparison effects and weather-related disruptions to physical retail traffic [1]. That performance immediately challenges narratives of collapse, but also suggests growth may be constrained without further catalysts.

Somnigroup International (SGI), created through Tempur-Sealy’s US$5 billion acquisition of Mattress Firm, emerges as a frontrunner. Its Tempur and Sealy brands had strong Black Friday performances, and Piper Sandler views the proposed acquisition of LEG (Leggett & Platt) as a strategic win: improving vertical integration via control over foam, springs, and adjustable bases could yield material margin enhancement [1].

Wayfair, while facing divergent analyst views on valuation, offers risk mitigation via its pure-play digital model. During winter storms, it benefited from increased online demand when physical shopping declined—a pattern that may reinforce digital channels as an increasingly critical competitive lever [1].

From a broader market perspective, mattress revenue in the United States was estimated between US$18.1 and US$18.5 billion in 2023-2025; forecasts project growth to ~$21–22 billion by 2030 and to higher thresholds through 2033 under various CAGR assumptions (~3.3–4.0%) [5][6][9]. Foam and memory-foam types, hybrid mattresses, luxury/eco-friendly product lines, and smart beds are among the categories expected to outperform legacy innerspring models [6][9].

Regional dynamics are meaningful: the Southeast—already commanding roughly 23–24% of mattress sales—serves as a base for volume growth, while the West region shows higher discreet growth rates tied to luxury, wellness-tech, and connected sleep products [9]. On the retail side, B2C channels dominate, whether through online specialty platforms, omnichannel efforts, or D2C models disrupting traditional wholesale and retail distributions [9].

However, headwinds complicate full-throttle growth: retailers face inflation in raw materials (foam, textiles, springs), margin pressure in mid-market, and potential regulatory scrutiny given scale (e.g., vertical integration in SGI/LEG or competition for dominant online players). Sustainability and circular-economy expectations also pose both cost burdens and brand risk [5][9].

Strategic implications for investors and corporate leadership include prioritizing brands with strong family of premium wellness features, evaluating vertical integration for margin capture, accelerating digital and omnichannel capabilities, and targeting regions with the strongest growth. Meanwhile, open questions involve how SGI/LEG will clear regulatory approval, whether Wayfair’s valuation concerns point to a correction ahead, and how fast consumers will trade up to premium smart or eco-friendly offerings amid cost inflation.