- European banks including BNP Paribas, Santander, UBS and Deutsche Bank are reinvesting to expand U.S. investment banking after rivals pulled back.
- Wall Street still dominates fees, with U.S. banks taking $59.1bn (56.5% share) in 2025 versus European banks’ $21.5bn (19.9%) and only a small slice of U.S. deal fees.
- Santander is the most aggressive, doubling U.S. headcount to about 1,300 and targeting the U.S. to deliver roughly 20% of CIB revenue in 2026.
- UBS and Deutsche Bank are pursuing selective growth via targeted hires, ECM build-out and sector-focused, cross-border advisory rather than trying to match full-service U.S. rivals.
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In 2025 and entering 2026, the U.S. investment banking market remains dominant globally, driven by high deal values, megadeals, and strong momentum in equity capital markets. U.S. firms claimed ~56.5% of global dealmaking fees in 2025—meaning European banks are now pressing hard to gain back ground, particularly for cross-border deals and sector specialization., However, their current market share—it has dropped to record lows in some segments—shows the scale of the challenge.
Santander has emerged as the European bank taking the most ambitious steps. It has built internal scale (now ~1,300 U.S. employees including support staff), hired hundreds of investment bankers since its Credit Suisse acquisitions, and set revenue goals: targeting U.S. to contribute roughly 20% of its CIB revenue in 2026., Past moves (e.g. planning 150 hires and promoting senior roles from Credit Suisse) align with its strategy to grow capability rather than flat out challenge Wall Street on every front.,
UBS is pursuing a similar but more calibrated approach in its U.S. expansion. Its equity capital markets (ECM) capabilities have grown sharply (25%) and senior leadership has been boosted with moves into healthcare, tech, and co-headed Americas ECM. Its U.S. ECM market share remains modest (c. 1.3%), signalling potential upside if scale and credibility improve.
Deutsche Bank’s strategy reflects a recognition of the saturated U.S. market. It plans to hire roughly 60 senior dealmakers globally in 2026 but will be selective in sectors and rely heavily on cross-border engagements tied to its strength in Europe. This reflects a defensive posture among non-U.S. banks: choose battles rather than full replication, where local knowledge and incumbent relationships still favour Wall Street players.
Strategic implications:
- To succeed, European banks must win credibility among U.S. clients and match Wall Street on speed, local relationships, and execution within U.S. regulatory contexts.
- Specialization (e.g. defense, metals and mining, healthcare, energy transition) and cross-border transaction capabilities are likely to serve as competitive differentiators.
- Costs and profitability risk are elevated: high compensation for top hires + expensive fixed costs + slower U.S. business scale-up could strain returns if deal momentum weakens.
- Regulatory and capital pressures—especially for U.S. operations—impose constraints; capital allocation must be disciplined.
Open questions:
- Will 2026’s volume of large, cross-border deals continue growing enough to enable a material shift in fee share? Forecasts point to modest growth but risk remains friction from valuation mismatches, geopolitical headwinds.,
- Can European banks preserve profitability in U.S. operations during the scale-up phase? Santander already reported pretax losses in its U.S. arm.
- How will Wall Street firms respond—will they double down on defending market share in cross-border advisory, especially via international expansion or partnerships?
- What regulatory or macroeconomic surprises (interest rates, inflation, trade policy, capital requirements) might disrupt current assumptions?
Supporting Notes
- European investment banks earned $21.5 billion in fees globally in 2025—19.9% of the $103 billion global pool—while U.S. banks generated $59.1 billion, capturing 56.5% market share.
- Santander’s U.S. corporate and investment banking team has grown to ~1,300 employees (including support staff); the bank aims for U.S. to deliver ~20% of its CIB revenue in 2026.
- Santander has seen over a third increase in the number of employees earning €1 million+ in the U.S. (from 32% of 357 in 2024 to 37% of 418 in 2025).
- UBS increased its ECM team by 25% following the Credit Suisse acquisition; its U.S. ECM market share is currently ~1.3%, low compared to its performance in Europe and Asia.
- Deutsche Bank plans to hire 60 senior dealmakers globally in 2026, but with a selective U.S. strategy focused on sectoral strength and cross-border transactions.
- Global dealmaking value rebounded in 2025—global M&A ~$3.0 trillion (up ~31% YoY), with North America accounting for ~$1.9 trillion. Deal volumes stayed stable, showing emphasis on larger deals.,