- Merdeka Gold Resources (EMAS), part of PT Merdeka Copper Gold, is preparing a Hong Kong IPO and has hired Citic Securities, Morgan Stanley and UBS, with deal size and timing still undecided.
- The investment case is boosted by the Pani mine reserve upgrade to 4.8 million ounces and a schedule targeting first gold in Q1 2026 after mining starts on Oct 1, 2025.
- EMAS remains loss-making, posting a roughly US$22.3 million net loss in 9M 2025 as revenue fell more than 90% year on year and overheads surged.
- Parent MDKA is also under pressure with about US$34.8 million in losses and weaker exports, increasing scrutiny on funding needs and execution risk ahead of the listing.
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The proposed Hong Kong listing by Merdeka Gold Resources (EMAS) represents a strategic move to tap international capital markets, particularly in Asia, at a time when gold prices are elevated and investor appetite for precious-metal exposure is strong. Engaging prominent investment banks—Citic (which provides connections to mainland China), Morgan Stanley, and UBS—indicates a push to secure both depth and geographic breadth in investor coverage. However, the timing, deal size, share allocation, regulatory structure and valuation will be critical in determining success.
The Pani mine’s reserve upgrade—to 4.8 million ounces of ore—confers greater attractiveness for prospective investors, extending mine life and reinforcing cash flow potential. With operations already started in October 2025 and first production anticipated early 2026, EMAS enters the listing runway with tangible operational assets rather than purely resource-stage promise.
Despite improved operational indicators like production and reserve growth, EMAS’s rising losses (US$22.28M in 9M 2025) reflect sharp revenue collapse and ballooning general and administrative costs. This suggests cash burn remains high, especially until Pani transitions to steady-state production.
MDKA’s broader enterprise is similarly constrained, with losses nearing US$35M by September 2025. The reliance on downstream nickel operations via MBMA provided a cushion but with export sales plunging ~46%, the group’s foreign-currency exposure and earnings from overseas markets are under pressure. Tujuh Bukit (gold/copper) was one of few bright spots.
Strategic risks and open questions include: What proportion of the Hong Kong issue will be primary vs secondary shares (e.g. existing EMAS shares vs new issuance)? What valuation EMAS can command given the losses and how that offsets perceived execution and commodity risks? Regulatory and cross-listing legal issues between Indonesia and Hong Kong may complicate or delay the listing. Furthermore, timing relative to Pani’s full production ramp and prevailing gold price dynamics will influence investor sentiment. If the deal is delayed past early production, burn may increase, affecting valuation and dilution. Operational execution of Pani and other projects will be under scrutiny.
Overall, EMAS stands at a pivotal moment: the reserve upgrade and startup of Pani provide vital credibility, but financials are currently weak. A successful listing would require strong value communication, risk mitigation/chasing of a narrow window while gold momentum aligns, and judicious allocation of funds to ensure path toward profitability.
Supporting Notes
- EMAS has engaged Citic Securities, Morgan Stanley, and UBS to manage its Hong Kong listing; size and timing are still under negotiation.
- Pani gold mine’s ore reserves have increased to 4.8 million ounces from about 1.9 million; mining operations began October 1, 2025, with first production expected in Q1 2026.
- EMAS recorded a net loss of US$22.28 million for the first nine months of 2025, up ~158.8% from the same period in 2024; revenue dropped ~93.5% YoY to US$113,437.
- EMAS’s cost of revenue fell sharply (~92.8%), but general and administrative expenses increased by ~296.8% in the same period.
- MDKA group’s net loss to end-September 2025 stands at ~US$34.76 million; revenue down ~22.8% overall, exports down ~45.9%, whereas Tujuh Bukit revenue rose ~7.8%.
- Production guidance for MDKA for full-year 2025 is 100,000-110,000 ounces of gold and 11,000-13,000 tonnes of copper; Pani project construction ~49% complete by Q1 2025 and on track. [2,10]
- Merdeka Gold’s market capitalisation post-IPO in Jakarta was ~US$5.7 billion, with shares more than doubling since September 2025.
- Pani mine’s mineral resource base is over 7 million ounces; reserve classification supports medium-to-long term production south of 500,000 ounces/year by 2032.