- SpaceX is reportedly preparing a 2026 IPO that could value it at $185T and raise $25B+.
- Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan, and Morgan Stanley are in senior underwriting talks, with Morgan Stanley seen as the lead contender.
- The bull case centers on Starlink (8M+ users) driving projected revenue growth from ~$155.5B in 2025 to ~$224B in 2026, plus optionality in direct-to-cell and other space infrastructure.
- Key risks include regulatory/export controls, Starship execution, competitive pressure, and whether markets can absorb an IPO of this scale.
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Recent reporting confirms that SpaceX is actively preparing for a blockbuster public listing in 2026, lining up four major Wall Street banks—Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Morgan Stanley—for leading roles. The company’s future value is being pitched at between $1 and $1.5 trillion, backed by a secondary share sale valuation of about $800 billion.
The valuation hinges heavily on revenue projections and the expansion of its Starlink satellite internet service. For 2025, projected revenues are near $15–$15.5 billion, with forecasts for 2026 reaching $22–24 billion, primarily driven by Starlink. Its current base is over 8 million users in 150+ markets, with extension into direct-to-cell services and possibly space-based data centers.
Other components of its business model—launch services via Elon Musk’s Starship, Mars ambitions, and orbital infrastructure—are more speculative but factored into the valuation upside. Investors will need to accept that some of these ventures are long horizon, carry high technical risk and likely contribute less to near-term cash flow.
The choice of banks, particularly Morgan Stanley as a front-runner for a lead underwriting role, reflects the need for global institutional distribution, regulatory navigation, and retail to institutional investor access. The scale of the IPO, should it proceed as projected, would force index rebalancing and may stress existing capital market frameworks.
Open strategic questions revolve around timing (financial and capital markets dynamic), regulatory barriers (export controls, licensing, foreign investor restrictions), competition (other satellite internet providers, terrestrial broadband expansion), and investor patience for speculative projects (Mars missions, AI data centers, etc.). Mitigations include robust disclosure, phased development, insurance, jurisdictional diversification, and executing on the strongest cash flow pillars first.
Supporting Notes
- SpaceX has reportedly valued itself at approximately $800 billion in a secondary share sale, up from about $400 billion earlier the year.
- Revenue estimates for 2025 are around $15–$15.5 billion, rising to $22–24 billion in 2026, driven mainly by Starlink.
- Starlink now serves over 8 million customers across 150+ markets; its traffic has more than doubled in 2025 relative to 2024.
- The banks under consideration for senior underwriting roles are Bank of America, Goldman Sachs, JPMorgan Chase, and Morgan Stanley; Morgan Stanley is viewed by some as the front-runner.
- SpaceX might raise over $25 billion in the IPO, depending on valuation and market conditions.
- Speculative revenue channels considered include space-based data centers, direct-to-cell services, Mars logistics, and expanded orbital infrastructure.
- Regulatory and execution risks include export and national security controls, environmental licensing (FAA/NEPA), Starship’s developmental and flight-test track record, and competition from other constellations and terrestrial networks.