- UK retail sales volumes rose 0.4% in December 2025, led by a rebound in online/non-store spending and an online jewellery boost tied to gold and silver demand.
- Despite December’s lift, Q4 sales volumes fell 0.3% versus Q3 after declines in October and November.
- Non-food stores dropped about 0.9% in December while supermarkets and fuel edged up, and online’s share hit roughly 28.3%.
- Retail volumes increased 1.3% over 2025 but remain around 1.5–2% below pre-pandemic levels.
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Recent data from the UK’s Office for National Statistics (ONS) portrays December 2025 as a surprise upside in an otherwise challenging retail environment. Volume sales rose 0.4% month-on-month, reversing two preceding months of decline. Non-store retailing—chiefly driven by online jewellery retailers reporting increased demand for precious metals like gold and silver—was a key catalyst. In contrast, non-food sectors faced further headwinds: department stores, clothing and footwear outlets, and other non-essential categories saw declines of around 0.9% in aggregate.
However, the month’s gain masks a more sobering quarterly trend. October and November posted declines (–0.8% in October; –0.1% in November), leaving Q4 overall down 0.3% versus Q3. This weakness in the “golden quarter” underscores delayed or constrained discretionary spending, despite a later surge in online jewellery. Imports for high street retailers were not compensated enough by online gains.
On an annual basis, retail volumes rose 1.3% in 2025—up from a modest 0.2% in 2024. The performance was broad-based, with gains in food stores, non-food physical retailers, and non-store/online channels. But despite recovery, volumes remain about 1.5–2% below their pre-COVID-19 peak in February 2020. Persistent inflation, high interest rates, and squeezed real incomes likely continue to weigh on consumer behavior.
Strategically, the surge in online jewellery—anchored in precious metals—suggests that consumers are reallocating discretionary spend towards durable or safe-asset items amid uncertainty. Retailers in jewellery, luxury, or investment-adjacent non-food segments may capture premium demand, while mainstream non-food discretionary retailers may need to innovate or adjust price/value propositions. The high online share (≈28.3%) hints at structural shifts favoring e-commerce, particularly for categories that align with emotional/spatial convenience.
Open questions remain around how sustained this “safe haven” demand is, especially if precious metal prices stabilize or reverse and whether inflation/economic policy changes (e.g., rate cuts, tax shifts) in early 2026 will re-release deferred demand in stubborn non-food sectors. Also, regional and demographic variations—often hidden in national aggregates—could reshape which segments benefit most from current trends.
Supporting Notes
- Retail sales volumes rose by 0.4% month-on-month in December 2025, following falls of 0.8% in October and 0.1% in November.
- Non-store retail volumes increased in December after a slump in October and November, with online jewellery retailers citing renewed demand for precious metals.
- Non-food stores (department, clothing, household, other non-food) fell 0.9% in December.
- Annual retail sales volumes grew by 1.3% over 2025, up from 0.2% in 2024.
- Q4 2025 volumes were down 0.3% versus Q3, despite December’s rebound.
- Sales remain 1.5–2% below their pre-pandemic (February 2020) volume levels.
- Online sales values rose 1.8% month-on-month in December, and by 11.1% year-on-year; online share of total retail sales reached roughly 28.3%.
- Food stores and automotive fuel saw small gains in December, while discretionary non-food categories suffered.