- SoftBank plans an all-cash takeout of DigitalBridge at $16 per share (about $4B EV), turning DBRG into a merger-arb with capped upside and a modest spread into an expected H2 2026 close.
- DBRG’s core strategic value is scarce AI infrastructure, including about 21 GW of secured power and roughly 5.4 GW of data center capacity in operation or development.
- Fundamentals are strong with double-digit fee revenue growth, high-30% FRE margins, and FEEUM around $40B+, providing support if the deal slips or breaks.
- Key risks are regulatory review (including potential CFIUS) and financing/execution, but SoftBank’s strategic motivation and board process improve perceived deal certainty.
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The acquisition of DigitalBridge (DBRG) by SoftBank represents a strategic play to lock in physical AI infrastructure—data centers, fiber, towers, and especially power capacity—through a fully backed all-cash offer, moving DBRG from a high growth public infrastructure investor into a deal with capped upside but enhanced certainty for shareholders. The deal calls for $16 per share, which is roughly 15% above its closing price as of December 26, 2025, and marks a ~50% premium to its 52-week unaffected average as of early December. If it completes in H2 2026 as expected, the roughly $0.65 spread from current trading levels (~$15.35) translates into a modest annualized return (~6-9%)—not high, but relatively risk-light in the current macro environment [inspiration].
Underlying DigitalBridge’s value proposition is its scale and its embedded exposure to one of the few scarce inputs in AI infrastructure: power. With ~21 gigawatts of secured power bank, plus an expanding portfolio of data center capacity (~5.4 GW under development or operation), DBRG holds tangible assets that take years to build and which are increasingly constrained. Backing this up are strong operational metrics: Q1 and Q3 2025 show strong fee-revenue growth (24% in Q1, 22% in Q3), FRE rising 79% and 43% YoY respectively, FRE margins in the high 30s, and FEEUM crossing ~$40 billion ahead of schedule. These serve as both fallback value in a deal failure scenario and evidence of demand tailwinds that favor long-duration infrastructure exposure.
However, risks and open questions remain. Regulatory approvals are necessary—given the foreign buyer (SoftBank) and the size of the portfolio in sensitive infrastructure, reviews under U.S. antitrust law and potentially CFIUS are likely. SoftBank must also deploy capital effectively: previously, they sold their Nvidia stake ( ~$5.8B) to fund AI commitments and are under pressure to deliver returns in a competitive AI infrastructure market marked by capital intensity and power/pass-through constraints.
For investors, the DBRG deal offers a defensive play: limited downside (anchored by the deal price), steady recurrence of core fee business with contract and capital activation tailwinds, but constrained upside once the deal is close. Alternatively, if SoftBank fails to close, the pre-deal momentum (FRE, FEEUM, leasing) gives DBRG a stronger baseline than many peer infrastructure managers. Ultimately, SoftBank is buying more than a financial asset—it’s acquiring infra that supports its AI & ASI ambitions, which increases its motivation to navigate regulatory & financing risk to completion.
Supporting Notes
- SoftBank agreed to acquire all outstanding common stock of DigitalBridge for $16.00 per share in cash; the deal values DigitalBridge at ~$4.0 billion enterprise value. Expected to close in second half of 2026, subject to customary regulatory approvals.
- The $16/share offer represents a premium of ~15% to DBRG’s closing price on Dec 26, 2025, and ~50% to the unaffected 52-week average as of Dec 4, 2025.
- DigitalBridge manages approximately $108 billion in infrastructure assets (AUM) globally.
- DigitalBridge’s secured power bank is nearly 21 GW; its data center capacity in operation or under construction is ~5.4 GW. Capital expenditure pipeline across its portfolio is estimated at ~$43 billion.
- Q1 2025: Fee Revenue ~ $90.2 million (+ 24% YoY); Fee-Related Earnings (FRE) ~ $35.0 million (+ 79% YoY); FRE margin ~ 39%; Fee-Earning Equity Under Management (FEEUM) ~ $37.3B (+ 15% YoY).
- Q3 2025: Fee revenue ~$94 million (+22% YoY); FRE up ~43%; FEEUM ~$40.7 billion; record leasing of ~2.6 GW in data centers (~one-third of U.S. hyperscale leasing in that quarter).
- DigitalBridge closed its previously announced $1.5 billion take-private acquisition of WideOpenWest (WOW!) on December 31, 2025, in partnership with Crestview.
- Operationally, DigitalBridge continues to invest in flagship campuses (e.g. Vantage’s Frontier and Lighthouse), expanded data center and power infrastructure, and maintains leadership under CEO Marc Ganzi.