- KeyBanc cut Ubers 12-month price target to $105 from $110 while reiterating Overweight, citing autonomous-vehicle uncertainty as a margin and multiple risk.
- Uber trades at roughly 30435 EV/EBITDA versus KeyBancs 15.5 2027E multiple, leaving the stock vulnerable to valuation compression if execution or AV timelines disappoint.
- Core results remain strong with about 18% YoY revenue and gross bookings growth, ~35% adjusted EBITDA growth, and roughly $8B in trailing free cash flow.
- Rising AV competition (e.g., Waymo, Tesla, Zoox) could weaken Ubers economics if its partner/aggregator model yields less pricing power and a higher revenue share to AV operators.
Read More
KeyBanc’s decision to lower its price target to US$105 reflects a recalibration of expectations: while maintaining confidence in Uber’s core Mobility and Delivery segments, the firm expresses concern about the potential impact that uncertainty in the AV space could have on margin expansion and valuation multiples. By using a 15.5× 2027E EV/EBITDA multiple in its model, KeyBanc is signaling that current market valuation levels are assuming near-perfect execution over a multi-year horizon.
Currently, market data confirm that Uber is trading at a significantly higher valuation. Several real-time datasets show its EV/EBITDA multiple around 30-35× (e.g. approximately 35.3× in mid-January 2026)—more than double KeyBanc’s target multiple for 2027. This exposes the stock to meaningful downside if growth falls short, if AV commercialization lags, or if competitive pressure erodes gross margins.
Operationally, Uber is delivering strong results. In its most recent quarter, revenue and gross bookings grew ~18% year-over-year, trips increased by similar margins, and Adjusted EBITDA rose ~35%. The company also generated record TTM free cash flow (approx. US$8.5B), increased liquidity, and initiated a large-scale share buyback program (~US$20B). These are signs of financial strength and suggest the company is entering a phase of optimizing capital returns.
However, AV risks loom. Analysts downgraded Uber (e.g. Melius Research) citing intensifying competition from AV incumbents, and warn Uber’s role as a partner or aggregator may be disadvantaged if AV operators demand greater revenue share, or if AV ownership becomes central to scale and cost control. While Uber has made progress—partnering with Waymo and others, deploying pilot AV programs—the timeline, regulatory challenges, cost curves and revenue share models remain unclear, making AV a volatile tail risk.
Strategic implications for investors include:
- Assessing valuation downside. Current pricing seems to fully embed strong growth and AV success; missing any key levers could compress valuation toward KeyBanc’s target multiple.
- Monitoring AV deployment and revenue share developments closely, especially partnerships and pilot programs to see how Uber’s margins are affected.
- Evaluating Uber’s capital allocation: buybacks and profitability metrics support a more conservative valuation, but margin sensitivity to AV cost input and competitive pressure matters.
- Watching competitive benchmarking: how Waymo, Tesla, Zoox, etc proceed toward commercial robotaxi deployment may set valuation benchmarks and risks.
Open questions that remain:
- When (if ever) will AVs contribute meaningfully to Uber’s margins rather than being an investment drag?
- How much revenue share and pricing power will Uber hold if AVs scale and if Uber remains primarily a platform rather than asset owner?
- How sustainable are the current growth rates given macro headwinds, regulatory risk, and competition?
Supporting Notes
- KeyBanc reduced its Uber price target from US$110 to US$105, maintaining an Overweight rating, citing AV uncertainty and using a 15.5× EV/EBITDA multiple for 2027.
- Uber’s current EV/EBITDA ratio is approximately 30-35× in recent data; ValueInvesting.io reports ~35.31× as of January 19, 2026; StockAnalysis shows ~32.96× in its latest statistics.
- Uber’s most recent quarterly performance included ~18% YoY growth in revenue and gross bookings, adjusted EBITDA up ~35%, trips up ~18%, and ~180 million monthly active platform consumers, with free cash flow (TTM) of approx. US$8.5B and liquidity of US$7.4B cash & cash equivalents.
- Uber announced a US$20B share buyback authorization to bolster shareholder returns.
- Melius Research downgraded Uber to Sell with a price target of US$73, citing increased competition in the AV sector and concerns over margin pressure if Uber remains a partner rather than operator in AVs.
- MarketWatch reported that Uber’s stock is trading around US$80 per share with a 15.5× projected EV/EBITDA multiple according to Bernstein, who set a target of US$115 citing projected ~34% annual EBITDA growth and growing AV partnerships, but warned of risks from dominant AV players.