- Global investment-banking fees hit about US$102.9 billion in 2025 (+~15% YoY), the second-best year on record, as M&A and capital-markets activity rebounded late in the year.
- Q4 results varied by bank, led by Morgan Stanley (+~47% IB revenue) and Goldman Sachs (+~25%), while Bank of America was roughly flat and some JPMorgan deals slipped into 2026.
- Bankers are looking to a busy 2026 with a bigger deal pipeline and potential mega-IPOs/exits such as OpenAI, SpaceX and Cerebras.
- Key risks include regulatory scrutiny, market and macro volatility, cost/margin pressures and deal-timing uncertainty.
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Wall Street investment banking had a strong rebound in 2025, benefiting from a late-year surge in M&A, IPOs, and underwriting activity. According to Dealogic, fees rose ~15% from 2024, reaching US$102.9 billion globally, the second-highest annual total on record after 2021. These gains were driven primarily by large deals late in the year and improved activity in both equity and debt capital markets.
Bank-level performance was mixed but generally positive. Morgan Stanley posted the biggest gain in Q4, with net investment banking revenue rising ~47% YoY, led by debt underwriting (which nearly doubled), and strong advisory fees. Goldman Sachs saw its fees jump ~25%, powered by a revival in M&A and advisory work. Bank of America, in contrast, saw only a modest (~1%) rise in investment banking fees, with flat dealmaking and underperformance in some underwriting segments. JPMorgan’s investment banking revenue disappointed relative to expectations, in part because some deals were delayed to 2026. Excuses notwithstanding, JPMorgan still earned the most fees overall in 2025.,
Looking ahead to 2026, executives reported a deal pipeline “meaningfully greater than at any point in the past five years” (Wells Fargo), and JPMorgan’s CFO highlighted “strong client engagement … reflected in our pipeline.” A number of high-profile private companies are widely expected to pursue IPOs or major exits, including OpenAI, SpaceX, and Cerebras, with OpenAI targeting a valuation as large as US$1 trillion., These upcoming deals, if completed smoothly, could fuel another strong year for banks.
However, there are open questions and headwinds. Regulatory risk remains front and center: antitrust enforcement, securities regulation, and foreign investment scrutiny could slow or complicate large transactions. Market volatility, rising costs—particularly around AI infrastructure and compute—and macroeconomic pressures (interest rates, inflation, uncertainty in consumer/business spending) also pose potential challenges. Timing of deals pushed into 2026 will test both banks’ capacity and investor demand. Careful deal selection and cost control will be critical for leading firms.
Supporting Notes
- Global investment banking revenues in 2025 totaled US$102.9 billion, a ~15% increase from 2024, making it the second-strongest year on record per Dealogic.
- M&A fees rose to ~US$41.4 billion in 2025 globally, up ~19% YoY; U.S. activity accounted for nearly 60% of global dealmaking revenue.
- Morgan Stanley’s investment banking revenue was up ~47% YoY in Q4 2025; its advisory fees rose ~45%, while equity underwriting was up ~8.6%.
- Goldman Sachs saw its investment banking fees increase ~25% in Q4 2025; advisory business rose ~41%.
- Bank of America’s investment banking fees in Q4 were flat/marginally up (~1%).
- OpenAI, SpaceX, and Cerebras are among companies exploring IPOs in 2026, with OpenAI’s IPO potentially valuing it as high as US$1 trillion.,
- SpaceX revenue projected at ~US$15 billion in 2025, rising to ~US$22-24 billion in 2026; latest secondary share sales imply valuation above ~US$800 billion.