- 2025 M&A value jumped roughly 40–50% to about $4.3–$4.8T, led by record megadeals and strength in tech, industrials, and healthcare.
- Deal counts fell, signaling fewer but larger, more strategic transactions and a weaker mid-market.
- 2026 could usher in an IPO “mega-cycle” as scaled, institutionally ready private giants pursue blockbuster listings.
- AI is becoming a horizontal disruptor, driving investment and M&A while regulatory divergence across the U.S., EU, and U.K. shapes strategy.
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Posnett’s Fortunesque forecast for 2026 reflects and is reinforced by multiple reputable industry data sources. What stands out is the transition from recovery to ambition in M&A, and the constitution of what she terms a “mega-cycle” for IPOs, both intertwined with AI’s accelerating transformation of business models, capital allocation, and regulatory environments.
M&A in 2025: Statements by Posnett—e.g., that global M&A volume rose about 44% year-over-year in 2025, reaching US$5.1 trillion—track closely with data from LSEG, Mergermarket, PwC, BCG, which place the number between US$4.3–4.8 trillion depending on methodology and cut-offs for megadeals. Key metrics: deal value sharply up; deal count significantly down globally, especially in mid-cap segments. Megadeals (≥US$10B) broke records: 68 global megadeals in 2025 according to LSEG, the most ever. Regionally, North America led, APAC and EMEA saw mixed results—with certain countries like China, Singapore, Netherlands, Switzerland outperforming, while UK, France, India, etc. lagged.
IPO “mega-cycle”: Posnett’s expectation that 2026 will bring IPOs of global titans—private companies with exportable scale and capital needs rivaling Fortune 500s—finds corroboration. MarketWatch and other reports highlight potential listings from companies like SpaceX (valuation ~$800B), Anthropic (~US$350B), among others, with ambitions for landmark IPOs. Investors seem ready to participate but cautious about valuation realism and timing.
AI’s strategic crosscurrents: Across all sources, AI is not just a sector for investment but a defining operational and strategic vector. Enterprises are moving past automation pilots toward AI-led and agentic workflows. M&A activity is being driven by acquiring capabilities in AI infrastructure and talent. However, this investment is taking place amid diverse regulatory regimes: the US pushing dominance and compute build-outs; EU enforcing guardrails under the AI Act; UK adopting hybrid pro-innovation models.
Strategic implications: Boards and CEOs need to align on prioritizing scale, innovation, and defensive positioning. There is increasing urgency to consolidate or acquire AI infrastructure, to reorient operating models, and to be selective in entering transactions given stretched valuations. For investors, IPOs represent generational opportunities—but require patience and careful scrutiny. Regulatory arbitrage and geographical strategy will matter more than ever. Private equity has dry powder to deploy but remains pressured to monetize; sponsors are likely to employ creative exits.
Open questions: Whether regulatory regimes will converge or diverge further; whether interest rates, inflation, or financing costs will undermine the capital intensity necessary for large AI investments or IPO structures; how mid-cap companies will get funded in this environment; and whether valuations in IPOs live up to expectations without repeat of earlier public-market disappointments.
Supporting Notes
- Global M&A total for 2025 ranged between ~US$4.3–4.8 trillion, up ~40–50% YoY, heavily lifted by deals ≥US$10B.
- Number of megadeals in 2025 broke records—68 global transactions of US$10B+ per LSEG/Mergermarket; 39 in BCG-tracked data set.
- Deal volume (count) shrank despite higher value—first half of 2025 down ~9–16% in number of deals, especially mid-market, per PwC and Mergermarket.
- North America led in both value and number of deals; Asia-Pacific and Europe had mixed performance with some notable outperformers and many laggards.
- IPO candidates in 2026 include SpaceX (~US$800B valuation), Anthropic (~US$350B), among others in AI and infrastructure sectors.
- AI moving from feature to foundation; boardroom agendas now include deployment speed, governance, agentic workflows, strategic acquisition of infrastructure and talent.
- Regulatory divergence: US executive orders aiming to reduce reporting requirements and accelerate AI infrastructure; EU AI Act enforcing strict compliance; UK’s hybrid pro-innovation approach with “AI Growth Zones”.