- Goldman Sachs sees global M&A rebounding to $3.1T–$3.9T in 2026, potentially topping the 2021 record of ~$3.6T.
- Deal activity is expected to concentrate in tech and AI infrastructure including hyperscalers, semiconductors, data centers, and power/transmission assets.
- Other forecasters project modest U.S. volume growth (~3–5%) driven by megadeals, private equity dry powder, and easing financing.
- Downside risks include tariffs, weakening labor markets, valuation gaps and stretched AI pricing, and elevated public/private debt.
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Goldman Sachs’ outlook for 2026 suggests a potential M&A cycle climax. Co-Chairman Tim Ingrassia estimates deal flow could reach $3.9 trillion—surpassing the 2021 high of about $3.6 trillion—assuming continued momentum in dealmaking. The firm’s forecast hinges on structural tailwinds like strong AI infrastructure investment, resilient financing conditions, and growing strategic urgency among corporates to adapt to rapid technological change.
Complementary forecasts—from EY-Parthenon, WTW and others—concur that deal volume in both corporate M&A and private equity will increase in 2026, though with more modest growth in U.S. volume (roughly +3-5 %) than in deal value. Transformative megadeals (>$1 billion) and transactions in sectors such as technology, life sciences, financial services, and AI infrastructure are expected to dominate value creation.
However, there are prominent risks. EY’s scenario work highlights that worse-than-expected tariff impacts, slower labor market deterioration turning acute, inflation pressure, and valuations stretching too far could undercut deal activity. Citigroup likewise flags sustainability concerns around AI investments and potential overhangs from public and private debt burdens.
Strategic implications for deal-makers and investors include: repositioning for AI-adjacent assets; preparing for cross-border and regulatory complexity; leveraging private equity dry powder; calibrating strategies to address valuation gaps; and stress-testing portfolios against downside macro scenarios, especially if rates remain elevated or global trade remains unsettled. Staying nimble appears essential.
Supporting Notes
- Goldman Sachs forecasts 2026 global deal flow around $3.1 trillion rising to as much as $3.9 trillion, exceeding 2021’s $3.6 trillion peak, excluding SPAC transactions.
- The bank predicts AI-related infrastructure (data centers, semiconductors, power, transmission) will be a major source of both deal volume and value.
- EY-Parthenon projects U.S. deal volume for deals above $100 million will grow ~3 % in 2026 and private equity deals by about 5 %.
- The value of U.S. corporate M&A deals in 1H-3Q 2025 was up ~23 % vs 2024, with deals over $1 billion representing ~27 % of deal activity, up from ~22 % pre-COVID.
- Goldman captured ~34 % of global M&A deal value advised in first three quarters of 2025 (~$432 billion in megadeals above $1 billion), the highest since 2015.
- Key risks identified: potential escalation or residual effects of tariffs; labor market softening; overstretched AI valuations; elevated public and private debt, especially for firms or sectors relying heavily on debt financing.