- America’s six biggest banks posted record 2025 results, with about $593B in revenue (+6% YoY) and $157B in profit (+8%).
- Trading and investment banking led the surge as global M&A rose ~42% and investment-banking fees climbed ~15%, with Goldman topping mega-deal advisory.
- Executives flagged geopolitical shocks, rate uncertainty, and a softening labor market as key risks despite strong market momentum.
- For 2026, banks expect modest loan growth amid nonbank competition and potential margin pressure if rates fall, even as deal activity and equity valuations look supportive.
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The Wall Street Journal reports that 2025 was a banner year for the largest U.S. banks, driven by revivals in trading, investment banking, and wealth divisions. Together, the six biggest banks achieved ~$593 billion in revenue—beating previous records—and profits of ~$157 billion, marking strong YoY gains of 6% and 8% respectively. Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley were standout performers, with record results in their capital markets operations.
Across the industry, global M&A volume surged ~42% to US$5.1 trillion in 2025, according to Dealogic. Investment banking revenue rose ~15% to nearly US$103 billion, its second-best showing since 2021. Goldman Sachs led in deal advisory value, reflecting both deal size and number. Depression in IPO activity showed some recovery heading into 2026.
However, these gains were not without warning signs. Leaders pointed to geopolitical risk, particularly around tariffs and global tensions, tightening or uncertain monetary policy, and labor market softening as potential threats. Meanwhile, banking regulators are under pressure given increased market cap, deregulatory gestures, and lighter oversight—factors that could expose vulnerabilities.
Looking ahead to 2026, credit growth is expected to remain modest. S&P Global forecasts subdued loan expansion in advanced economies, weak corporate borrowing demand, and competition from nonbank lenders. Net interest margin compression looms if rates fall. Despite this, public markets appear receptive—big banks’ equities trade at or near record highs, book value metrics are improving for certain names, and wealth‐management inflows remain strong.
Strategic implications for bank executives and investors include prioritizing advisory and trading capabilities, managing capital and risk against macro‐uncertainty, revisiting costs and operations under optimistic revenue assumptions, and preparing for regulatory swing back if economic or political sentiment shifts. Open questions remain on loan quality, impact of rate cuts on margins, sustainability of dealmaking momentum, and whether regulators will reimpose constraints in light of high valuations and risk concentrations.
Supporting Notes
- Six major U.S. banks generated ~US$593 billion in revenue in 2025, a year-over-year increase of ~6%.
- The same banks earned ~US$157 billion in profits in 2025, up ~8% from 2024, reaching record levels.
- Global M&A volume jumped ~42% in 2025 to ~US$5.1 trillion, driven by mega-deals; investment banking revenue rose ~15% to ~$103 billion.
- Goldman Sachs led in deal advisory volume, advising on ~US$1.48 trillion in transactions, especially including large mergers and tech industry consolidations.
- Wall Street banks’ trading revenue surged: equities trading for the top banks hit ~$60 billion in 2025, with fixed income and other businesses also rising.
- Chief executives highlighted risks including rate uncertainty, geopolitical tension, and labor market softening despite the positive momentum.
- S&P Global projects only modest credit growth in 2026, citing risk aversion, elevated funding costs, and competition from nonbank lenders.
- Bank stocks, especially those of the six largest, climbed to record highs in late 2025, with book values per share improving for under-performing names such as Citigroup.