Afreximbank’s Fashion Investments & AGOA Expiry: Risks & Opportunities for Africa’s Textiles Sector

  • Afreximbank is scaling investment across Africa’s fashion and textile value chain, combining industrial infrastructure financing with creative-economy export support.
  • Upstream, it is backing the Africa Textile Renaissance Plan ($5B) to add 500,000 tons of cotton processing capacity and support hundreds of thousands of jobs, plus a $450M facility for industrial parks and SEZs.
  • Through CANEX, it has committed $2B for 2025-2028 to fund creative exports, market access and capacity building, helping some designers attract external capital.
  • AGOA’s expected 2025 expiry is a major risk, as higher US tariffs could sharply cut apparel exports and threaten jobs in key exporting countries.
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The landscape for fashion, apparel, and textile investment in Africa is rapidly evolving, driven by both enabling action from financial institutions and external shocks that threaten export competitiveness. Afreximbank is doubling down across multiple fronts: infrastructure (industrial parks and upstream value chains), export and creative economy initiatives (CANEX), and facilitating market access. These moves are well aligned with broader industrialisation goals and may yield significant return—not just financially, but in transformation of trade and employment.

Upstream value chain investments: Partnering through Arise IIP and Rieter, Afreximbank is spearheading the Africa Textile Renaissance Plan, targeting 500,000 metric tons of cotton processing capacity over a 3-5 year horizon backed by $5 billion in financing. It also raised a $450 million credit facility to develop industrial parks and special economic zones (SEZs) across Nigeria, Côte d’Ivoire, Kenya, DRC, Malawi, and others. A specific scheme in Nigeria expects to recruit 250,000 workers via a $5 billion facility producing ~350,000 tonnes of garments per annum and reducing import expenditure by $4.7 billion.

Creative economy and export enablers: The CANEX programme has grown from initial pledges of $500 million to $2 billion over three years, targeting fashion, film, music, arts, sports, literature, gastronomy, infrastructure, and training. On the ground, fashion designers are gaining access to global buyers via events such as the Africa Now pop-up in Paris, mentoring, incubators, and angel investment. For example, Zimbabwe’s Vanhu Vamwe secured six-figure external investment after participating in CANEX. [Primary Source]

External headwinds—AGOA expiry and tariff shocks: The expiration of the AGOA trade deal in September 2025 significantly affects export terms. Without AGOA, average US tariffs for AGOA-eligible African exporters rise from near zero to substantial Most Favoured Nation (MFN) rates. Lesotho’s clothing and South Africa’s vehicle exports are projected to decline by 29 % and 23 %, respectively, by 2029. Kenyan exporters, dependent on AGOA for apparel, face both job losses (estimated 66,000 direct jobs in Kenya) and loss of export volumes ($510-$600 million annually under AGOA for Kenya).,

Strategic implications & risks: For investors, the opportunity lies in betting on infrastructure projects that embed value addition in textiles, fashion supply chains, and creative exports. The upstream investments may deliver more predictable returns but require big capital, regulatory stability, and supply chain maturity. Designer-facing ventures often offer high visibility but thinner margins and elevated risk without strong business models. AGOA’s expiry heightens urgency to shift away from reliance on preferential access and towards quality, compliance, diversified export markets, and vertical integration.

Open questions it remains to be seen how regulatory and policy risk will be managed: Can host governments ensure stable incentives, reliable energy, and infrastructure? Will designers develop capacity for operations and scale beyond creative flair? How will financing (debt vs equity) adjust to risk-return trade-offs? And crucially, will AGOA be renewed or replaced, and what alternative frameworks (e.g., intra-African trade, EU/Africa, China/Africa deals) will fill the gap?

Supporting Notes
  • Afreximbank has committed to a $2 billion budget for its Creative Africa Nexus (CANEX) programme over three years, up from $1 billion.
  • The Africa Textile Renaissance Plan, signed by Afreximbank, Arise IIP, and Rieter in October 2024, targets 500,000 metric tons of cotton transformation capacity and up to 500,000 jobs.
  • In June 2025, Afreximbank announced a $5 billion project for a textile facility in Nigeria expected to employ 250,000 workers and produce 350,000 tonnes of garments per year.
  • The bank secured a $450 million global credit facility to develop industrial parks and SEZs across multiple countries, with projected exports of $5 billion over five years and creation of up to 32,000 direct and 138,000 indirect jobs.
  • Designers such as Vanhu Vamwe from Zimbabwe received six-figure investment after engaging with CANEX; designer export activations include “Africa Now” pop-ups in Paris, showcasing brands like Boyedoe, Wuman, Late For Work, and We Are NBO. [Primary Source]
  • AGOA’s expiry causes average tariffs for key exports from eligible African countries to increase from near zero to MFN tariffs (~10-20%+), threatening apparel and manufactured exports from countries such as Kenya, Lesotho, and Madagascar.,
  • Projections for Lesotho show clothing exports could decline by 29% and South Africa car exports by 23% by 2029 if AGOA expires without replacement.
  • Kenia’s apparel sector employs ~66,000 people directly under AGOA, exports valued around $510-$600 million annually; loss of access risks mass job losses.,

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