- The World Bank expects global commodity prices to fall about 7% in 2026, extending a four-year downtrend.
- Energy drives the decline, with oil sliding from roughly $68/bbl in 2025 to about $60 in 2026 and European gas easing on ample LNG while U.S. gas rises.
- Metals and agriculture are mostly flat to slightly lower (iron ore weaker), while fertilizer prices stay elevated despite easing after 2025.
- Precious metals should keep rising in 2026 but more slowly, with outcomes sensitive to geopolitics, monetary policy, and growth shocks.
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The World Bank’s Commodity Markets Outlook report of October 2025 provides a sober forecast: after a surge in commodity prices driven by post-COVID recovery and geopolitical shocks, global commodity prices are expected to decline approximately 7% in 2026, marking the fourth consecutive annual moderation.
Among commodity categories, the energy sector is expected to suffer the steepest decline. Oil prices, which averaged about USD 68 per barrel in 2025, are projected to fall to around USD 60 in 2026 as excess supply amid sluggish demand—especially in China—puts downward pressure on prices. Natural gas exhibits divergent regional dynamics: in the U.S., benchmark prices are forecast to rise about 11% in 2026 following a 60% year-over-year gain in 2025; conversely, European prices are expected to decline by around 10–11%, thanks to greater availability of LNG imports and moderate demand.
The metals and agricultural sectors appear more muted. Base metals—copper, aluminum, tin—see some strength in 2025 tied to renewable energy infrastructure and trade constraints, but expect only modest gains or stabilization in 2026. Iron ore is more exposed, with price declines forecast over both 2025 and 2026. Agricultural commodity prices are projected to edge down in 2026, supported by generally favorable supply conditions, although fertilizers present a notable exception: strong demand, production bottlenecks, and trade restrictions have pushed fertilizer prices significantly higher.
Precious metals remain standout. Following a dramatic investment-driven surge in 2025 (gold rising roughly 40+ %), they are expected to continue their upward trend in 2026—though more moderately—fueled by ongoing central bank purchases, geopolitical uncertainty, and prospective U.S. monetary easing. Some forecasters (e.g. Bank of America) even predict gold could reach USD 5,000 per ounce at peak in 2026, though caution that corrections are possible if macro-drivers lose force.
Strategically, those sectors most exposed to energy or heavy commodity supply (exporters, energy-intensive manufacturers) may see revenue pressures, while countries and investors seeking inflation hedges may double down on precious metals. Forward contracting, hedging, and supply diversification are likely to become more central in managing risk. Open questions include how China’s growth trajectory will evolve, whether trade policies intensify or ease, how monetary policy shifts—including in the U.S.—will impact safe havens, and the magnitude of supply disruptions (due to weather, sanctions, or infrastructure bottlenecks).
Supporting Notes
- Global commodity prices are projected to decline by about 7% in 2026, marking the fourth consecutive year of moderation.
- Oil prices are expected to average USD 68 per barrel in 2025 (down from 2024), declining further to about USD 60 in 2026.
- Energy prices are forecast to fall approximately 10% in 2026 (y/y), following a 12% decline in 2025.
- The agricultural commodity price index is expected to remain stable in 2025 before edging down about 2% in 2026; beverage prices within agriculture are expected to fall by around 7% in 2026.
- Fertilizer prices rose nearly 14% quarter-on-quarter in Q3 2025, standing 28% above year-ago levels; forecasted to climb 21% in 2025 before easing in 2026 and 2027, though staying elevated relative to pre-2015 averages.
- Base metals prices projected to rise 3% in 2025, remain broadly stable in 2026, and increase modestly (about 2%) in 2027; iron ore prices expected to fall by ~10% in 2025, then decline further (~4%) in 2026 and 2027.
- Precious metals surged over 40% in 2025, with gold prices projected to increase by about 42% in 2025 followed by slower gains of ~5% in 2026, supported by central bank buying and geopolitical uncertainty.
- Natural gas in the U.S. benchmark rose ~44% y/y in 2025 Q3; projected to increase ~11% in 2026. European benchmark natural gas prices are forecast to decline ~10–11% in 2026.