- After the U.S. captured Nicolás Maduro and Trump said Washington would temporarily “run” Venezuela, hedge funds and foreign investors began positioning for a Venezuelan asset boom.
- Funds are buying distressed Venezuelan bonds and scouting oil deals, betting that sanctions relief and reconstruction will unlock large restructuring gains and high-return production investments.
- Likely early winners include firms already operating in-country, especially Chevron, if U.S.-backed control translates into enforceable contracts and export access.
- The trade is high-risk, hinging on legal legitimacy, security and infrastructure decay, and whether any U.S. arrangements survive political pushback and a post-Trump policy shift.
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In recent action dated around January 3-5, 2026, the U.S. military executed a high-risk operation in Caracas that resulted in the capture of Nicolás Maduro and his wife, Cilia Flores. The event triggered a sudden and dramatic policy shift: President Donald Trump declared that the United States will temporarily govern Venezuela and take control of its oil sector pending a transition of power. ([aljazeera.com](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/3/trump-bombs-venezuela-us-captures-maduro-all-that-we-know?utm_source=openai))
This upheaval has catalyzed intense interest from foreign investors and hedge funds. Key moves include British and U.S. funds planning investment tours, hedge funds buying Venezuelan bonds anticipating large upside from restructuring, and private equity funds like Ali Moshiri’s Amos Global raising capital (US$2 billion) to acquire oil assets and reserves from PDVSA with planned 2.5× returns over five to seven years. ([businessinsider.com](https://www.businessinsider.com/foreign-investment-oil-tourism-venezuela-charles-myers-finance-expert-2026-1?utm_source=openai))
Companies with pre-existing presence stand to benefit most, particularly Chevron, which holds production projects in Venezuela and has secured short-term sanction exemptions. Its major shareholder Berkshire Hathaway (6% stake, ~US$19 billion value) is viewed as a key potential beneficiary. ([businessinsider.com](https://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-berkshire-chevron-stock-trump-us-control-venezuela-oil-2026-1?utm_source=openai))
Nevertheless, risks are intense. Venezuela’s oil infrastructure is severely degraded, requiring huge investment. The legal basis for U.S. interception of Maduro, installation of interim leadership under Delcy Rodríguez, and U.S. control over oil exports faces broad international legal scrutiny. Sanctions, ownership claims (e.g. expropriations under Maduro’s and Chávez’s governments), and political resistance both inside Venezuela and among external state actors will complicate any transaction. ([aljazeera.com](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/3/trump-bombs-venezuela-us-captures-maduro-all-that-we-know?utm_source=openai))
Open questions crucial for investors include: Will the interim administration have legitimacy domestically and internationally? Will sanctions be lifted in meaningful ways or replaced by blockades? How much control will U.S. companies actually have over operations, profits, and contracts—especially beyond Trump’s term? And how will governance, security, and human rights risks be managed in Venezuela in the interim and beyond?
Strategically, if the U.S. succeeds in stabilizing the oil industry, this could reshape global oil supply (raising U.S. output, lowering import dependency), strengthen U.S. influence in Latin America, and spark investor flows into sectors beyond oil: infrastructure, tourism, construction. But the scenario also risks destabilizing geopolitics, provoking retaliation from allies of the prior government, and inviting legal challenges and diplomatic isolation if norms are breached.
Supporting Notes
- On January 3, 2026, U.S. forces struck Caracas and captured President Nicolás Maduro and his wife, flying them to New York to face U.S. charges including narco-terrorism. ([aljazeera.com](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/3/trump-bombs-venezuela-us-captures-maduro-all-that-we-know?utm_source=openai))
- Trump announced that the U.S. will temporarily “run” Venezuela and allow U.S. oil companies to rebuild the oil infrastructure and take control of oil reserves. ([apnews.com](https://apnews.com/article/ca712a67aaefc30b1831f5bf0b50665e?utm_source=openai))
- British investment firms and hedge funds are planning trips to Venezuela (as early as March 2026) and purchasing Venezuelan bonds in anticipation of restructuring and strong upside. ([businessinsider.com](https://www.businessinsider.com/foreign-investment-oil-tourism-venezuela-charles-myers-finance-expert-2026-1?utm_source=openai))
- Ali Moshiri’s Amos Global is raising US$2 billion to acquire oil production (20,000-50,000 barrels/day) and reserves (500,000 barrels) from PDVSA, with projected 2.5× return over 5-7 years. ([ft.com](https://www.ft.com/content/67c43f17-dbe4-42b3-be8d-6351ab842b06?utm_source=openai))
- Chevron, already active in Venezuela, is the only major U.S. oil company with boots on the ground; its investor Berkshire Hathaway (with ~6% ownership) stands to gain significantly. ([businessinsider.com](https://www.businessinsider.com/warren-buffett-berkshire-chevron-stock-trump-us-control-venezuela-oil-2026-1?utm_source=openai))
- Legal and governance uncertainty remains high: interim leader Delcy Rodríguez has publicly criticized U.S. operations, calling them “brutal aggression”; the legal status of U.S. control and ownership rights is contested under international law. ([aljazeera.com](https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2026/1/4/fact-checking-trump-following-us-capture-of-venezuelas-maduro?utm_source=openai))
- Venezuela’s oil infrastructure is severely degraded, which increases the cost and timeline for any meaningful revival; many firms demand legal guarantees and risk mitigations before investing. ([ft.com](https://www.ft.com/content/84e05c24-ca30-416d-9f7e-1798a28f29c3?utm_source=openai))