- William Blair’s Matt Zimmer said December 2025 deal activity was strong, signaling a potential inflection point heading into 2026.
- Equity capital markets appear to be reopening, with improving IPO prospects and carve-outs gaining popularity.
- Rates, policy uncertainty, and regulatory headwinds restrained 2025 activity, but expected rate easing and clearer rules could support a better 2026.
- The durability of the December pickup and the ability of the IPO pipeline to clear remain uncertain, with no public data quantifying the rebound.
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In his appearance on Bloomberg TV’s “Open Interest,” Matt Zimmer framed December 2025 as a constructive inflection point for William Blair’s investment banking business, citing “strong deal numbers in December” that suggest deal activity may have bottomed and could meaningfully improve heading into 2026. These strong December numbers, however, are not quantified in the public material, leaving open how much of a rebound occurred compared to prior months.
Zimmer stressed relief in the equity capital markets: he noted that they are “opening up,” IPO potential is increasing, and that carve-outs are becoming more popular. These represent key structural dynamics; IPOs had been largely sidelined in 2024-2025, and their reemergence could unlock both issuer liquidity and sponsor exit pathways. Carve-outs, similarly, offer a flexible route between private exits and full divestitures.
Rate policy and macro forces remain critical strategic levers. Zimmer pointed to macro factors which suppressed deal activity throughout 2025, including policy uncertainty, interest rate levels, and regulatory constraints. Looking into 2026, he views expected rate easing and continued clarity on policy/regulation as necessary preconditions for sustained deal acceleration—but cautioned these are not yet fully materialized.
Strategic implications for firms and sponsors:
- Firms should prepare now for a rebound in M&A and ECM deal flow: timing diligence, investment banking relationships, and readiness to act swiftly as windows open.
- IPOs and carve-outs may become favored tools for liquidity—this raises strategic trade issues around pricing, disclosure, and positioning vs competitors.
- Credit and debt financing remain dependent on interest rate trajectory—with potentially large threshold effects if rates begin to decline meaningfully or if regulatory constraints ease.
- Sponsors (private equity, family offices) should chart exit paths but be mindful of execution risk, including SEC processing delays, macro shocks (inflation, geopolitical), or shifts in capital market sentiment.
Open questions:
- How materially strong were December’s transactions—by value, count, and across sectors—and to what extent were they “pulled forward” or simply delayed closings?
- How significant is the IPO pipeline in terms of size, across sectors, and how many IPOs are true quality offerings vs speculative plays?
- What is the sensitivity of deal execution to inflation and interest rate changes? If inflation doesn’t moderate or rates stay elevated, how quickly could that choke off momentum?
- How will regulatory and geopolitical risks—trade policy, carve-out oversight, antitrust—shape the shape and speed of deal flows?
Supporting Notes
- Matt Zimmer stated that William Blair saw “strong deal numbers in December,” calling December a month of improved transaction activity.
- Zimmer pointed to the “opening up of equity capital markets” and said there is “potential for increased IPOs.”
- He also observed that carveouts are becoming more popular among deal structures.
- The discussion included macro factors that impacted 2025 deal activity, implying that rates, policy, and regulatory uncertainty were drag factors.
- No specific quantitative figures (deal count, deal value, number of IPOs) were disclosed in the article, making it difficult to benchmark the strength of December relative to prior months.