- Wall Street banks will start disclosing 2025 bonus figures in January, led by Morgan Stanley (Jan 7) and followed by Goldman Sachs (Jan 16), JPMorgan (week of Jan 20), Bank of America (Jan 26), and Citi later in the month.
- Forecasts call for meaningfully higher payouts, with traders up as much as ~25% and solid gains also expected in M&A and wealth management on stronger late-2025 revenues and deal activity.
- New York City’s 2024 securities bonus pool hit a record $47.5B, lifting the average bonus ~31.5% to about $244,700 amid a near-90% jump in industry profits.
- Banks are balancing richer bonuses with cost discipline, deferred-comp structures, retention pressure, and regulatory or policy uncertainty.
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The 2025 bonus season—covering year-end 2025 and typically paid in early 2026—is lining up as one of the more generous in recent years, particularly compared with the lackluster payouts seen following 2021 and during most of the COVID-era contraction. The backdrop includes strong M&A and dealmaking in H2 2025, robust trading revenue, and solid equity performance across major indices. Firms appear ready to reward employees, especially in high-revenue roles such as trading desks and M&A advisory.
The timing of bonus announcements follows a fairly traditional pattern: Morgan Stanley opening disclosures on Jan 7, with most of the bulge bracket marching through January. These announcement dates tend to align with fourth-quarter earnings calls or internal board approvals, which sets expectations for payout timing—generally late January through early February—with base salaries or raises often adjusted starting Feb 1 in many banks.
The 2024 bonus pool set a high bar: record in both absolute and relative terms in New York City. The $47.5 billion pool, average bonus of ~$244,700 (up ~31.5%), and employment in the securities industry reaching ~201,500 employees represent strength in both profit and workforce metrics. However, it’s important to note that these statistics reflect cash bonuses and employment in NY City only, do not include non-NY staff or all forms of deferred compensation.
While the forecasts for 2025 suggest elevated payouts—especially for top performers—these are not without risk. Among the open questions: whether profit gains are sustainable, how regulatory/federal policy headwinds (e.g. interest rates, trade, taxation) may eat into margins, and how firms balance high bonuses with pressure on costs, especially in productivity and headcount. Additionally, labor market dynamics are tight; employees who feel underpaid in rapidly rising cycles may become flight risks.
Supporting Notes
- Morgan Stanley is expected to be the first to reveal its 2025 bonus numbers on January 7; Goldman Sachs follows on January 16; JPMorgan during the week of January 20; Bank of America on January 26; Citi in the second half of January.
- Johnson Associates forecasts up to ~25% bonus increases for traders, with M&A and wealth management lines also set for notable increases, supported by strong end-of-year deal activity.
- New York State Comptroller’s report: total bonus pool for 2024 in NYC’s securities industry hit US$47.5 billion; average bonus jumped ~31.5% to US$244,700; securities employment rose to ~201,500 people.
- Profit growth in the securities industry was nearly 90% in 2024 year-over-year; key drivers include trading, debt and equity underwriting, and advisory fees.
- Key risks and uncertainties: economic headwinds, regulatory and policy changes in 2025; balancing generous bonus pools with cost discipline and rising expectations; potential retention/drift issues if bonuses aren’t competitive.