- U.S. 3PLs returned to modest growth in 2024 after a steep 2023 downturn, but conditions remain fragile.
- Ending de minimis duty-free imports in 2025 is rerouting e-commerce freight into fuller customs processes, raising costs and disrupting air/express flows.
- Consolidation is accelerating, highlighted by DSV’s €14.3B acquisition of DB Schenker that creates a much larger global logistics player.
- Warehousing stays tight as labor costs and turnover persist, and smaller 3PLs struggle to fund automation and digital upgrades.
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The U.S. third-party logistics (3PL) industry demonstrated signs of stabilization in 2024 following the unprecedented demand surge and subsequent contraction of prior years. According to data from Armstrong & Associates (A&A), net revenues in the U.S. rose ~1.8% to $131.5 billion in 2024, with gross revenues up ~2.8%, reflecting recovery after a decline of over 12% in net revenue during 2023. These figures suggest a market that is healing, though still vulnerable to external pressures. Key sectors—international transportation management (ITM) and dedicated contract carriage (DCC)—continue to outperform domestic transportation management (DTM), which is more exposed to fluctuations in freight brokerage, intermodal, and last-mile demand.
Another major shift impacting 3PL operators derives from trade policy: the end of the de minimis exemption beginning May 2, 2025 for China (and expanded worldwide by August) forces e-commerce shipments traditionally routed via air/parcel with minimal customs processing into full customs compliance regimes. These regulatory changes have led to rising costs, longer delivery times, and reconfiguration of inbound freight flows, especially affecting Chinese-origin fast fashion brands and the freight- and express-focused 3PLs that support them.
Consolidation continues to reshape the competitive landscape. A&A’s rankings for 2024 list Amazon at the top in U.S. 3PL gross revenue, followed by established names like C.H. Robinson, GXO Logistics, and J.B. Hunt. Smaller providers, struggling to match investment in technology and scale, are increasingly marginalized unless they specialize. One of the most consequential moves comes from Europe: DSV’s all-cash €14.3 billion purchase of DB Schenker (completed 30 April 2025) combines two of the largest freight forwarders/contract logistics providers to create an entity generating approximately DKK 310 billion (~€41.6B) in pro forma revenue with ~160,000 employees globally.
Warehousing and labor dynamics remain among the most pressing issues. Warehousing employment in the U.S. increased marginally from 1.832 million to 1.843 million from May 2024 to May 2025—a 0.6% rise—despite e-commerce sales growth of 6.1% year-over-year. Wage inflation (base wage increases up to ~$22/hour) and turnover remain high, and smaller 3PLs are particularly challenged by capital constraints when it comes to automation, robotics, and WMS/digital systems. These pressures feed into margin erosion throughout the sector.
Taken together, these forces suggest that while 3PLs are recovering, success in 2025–2026 will depend heavily on adaptability: ability to manage compliance costs, digitalization, scale, and selective M&A. Clients (shippers) too will need to reassess contracts, RFPs, and service models to navigate pricing pressure and supply chain risks.
Supporting Notes
- A&A estimates U.S. 3PL net revenues rose 1.8% in 2024 to $131.5B, recovering from a ~12.8% decline in 2023; gross revenues rose ~2.8% to $307.9B.
- The “de minimis” duty-free exemption was terminated for imports from China and Hong Kong on May 2, 2025; the same exemption was revoked globally by end-August 2025.
- Following the de minimis change, express and air freight volumes from China dropped ~43% month-to-month between May and June, later recovering toward 100,000 tonnes per month by September.
- DSV completed the €14.3 billion acquisition of DB Schenker on April 30, 2025, creating a combined global logistics player with pro forma revenue of ~DKK 310B (~€41.6B) and ~160,000 employees in over 90 countries.
- Germany is set to receive ~€1B in investment over the next 3-5 years from DSV as part of the Schenker acquisition deal.
- U.S. warehousing employment rose only ~0.6% year-on-year despite e-commerce sales growth of ~6.1%; warehouse worker wages rose from ~$15-18/hr to $19-22/hr in many cases.
- Smaller 3PLs struggle to make capital investments in automation, robotics, and digital tooling, placing them at a disadvantage relative to larger peers who can spread these costs.