DBRG Valuation Locked In at $16: Growth Assumptions Under Pressure

Recent developments have significantly shifted the valuation backdrop for DigitalBridge Group (DBRG), especially following the announced acquisition by SoftBank and the renewed focus on its growth outlook in the AI-driven digital infrastructure space.

Deal Terms and Near-Term Upside: SoftBank has agreed to acquire DBRG for approximately $4 billion (including debt), paying $16 per share in cash, a ~15% premium over its closing price just before the deal announcement. The transaction is expected to close in the second half of 2026, and DBRG is to continue operating as an independent platform under current leadership.

Valuation Relative to Consensus and Narrative Models: Prior to the SoftBank deal, valuation research indicated that DBRG’s shares were trading close to meaningful, albeit modest, undervaluation. Simply Wall St estimates a “narrative fair value” around $17.28, driven by expectations of substantial revenue growth, increased margins, and a higher multiple of earnings. Analyst consensus price targets across multiple firms typically center near $16–$17, with some bullish views extending toward $20.

Valuation Multiples and Dependence on Growth Projections: That said, the current P/E (trailing twelve months) is extremely elevated—at over 110× according to several sources—far exceeding industry and peer averages in the mid-20× range. Such disparities underscore that much of DBRG’s valuation is predicated on future performance rather than current fundamentals.

Fundamentals and Financial Performance: Financially, DBRG is exhibiting revenue volatility. Revenue in the trailing twelve months was down significantly year-over-year; similarly, earnings have rebounded but remain modest in absolute terms. The firm manages roughly $108 billion in digital infrastructure assets, including data centers, cell towers, fiber, small cells, and edge infrastructure.

Strategic Implications: The SoftBank acquisition suggests that long-term investors or strategics place high strategic value on control of digital infrastructure platforms—particularly those with exposure to AI infrastructure demand. For DBRG, access to SoftBank’s capital, global reach, and network could help in scaling deployments and closing capital gaps that might otherwise limit growth under standalone operation. Conversely, shareholders likely cap upside to near the deal price unless competing bids or regulatory risks emerge.

Risks & Open Questions:

• Can DBRG deliver the revenue and margin expansion needed to justify higher forward multiples? What are the company’s projected paths for FRE, AEUM (Assets or Earnings Under Management), and EBITDA?
• How sensitive is the strategy to interest rates and capital costs? Given elevated rates globally, funding infrastructure-heavy growth is more expensive.
• What competitive pressures exist—from both traditional infrastructure operators and hyperscale cloud/data center providers seeking to internalize or control more of the stack?
• What deal risks (regulatory, integration, valuation) come with the SoftBank transaction? Is the $16/share price at risk from material due diligence findings or wider macro headwinds?