- U.S. banks enter 2026 with solid capital and profits but face slower growth (~1.4% GDP) and sticky inflation (~3.2%) that pressure margins and fee income.
- Agentic and generative AI are a key lever for efficiency and new revenue, but legacy systems, data fragmentation, and governance gaps limit scaling.
- Payments are being disrupted by stablecoins and tokenization, intensifying competition and raising settlement, compliance, and operating-model stakes.
- Credit risk is rising—especially in auto and credit cards—and AI-enabled fraud is accelerating, driving tighter risk management and regulatory scrutiny.
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At the start of 2026, the U.S. banking and financial services sector is navigating a complex mix of opportunity and risk. According to Deloitte’s “2026 Banking and Capital Markets Outlook,” macroeconomic headwinds—slower consumer spending, high inflation, and tightening consumer debt burdens—are expected to constrain growth. GDP is forecasted to slow to roughly 1.4% in a baseline scenario, down from 1.8% in 2025. Simultaneously, inflation is projected to remain elevated near 3.2%, prompting the Fed to maintain interest rates in the near term with possible cuts later in the year.
Revenue trends are bifurcated. On the one hand, net interest income stands to benefit from yield curve steepening and moderating interest rates (especially for large, diversified banks). On the other hand, deposit costs and yield pressures—especially in competitive markets—could compress net interest margins, while noninterest income from trading, investment banking, and fee-based services may soften if business investment remains cautious.
Technological transformation—in particular, AI—emerges as a central lever for both cost control and growth. Agentic AI and generative AI deployments are on the rise, and Deloitte projects material cost savings and revenue uplift for firms that scale capabilities. However, infrastructure readiness—clean data, strong governance, and modern architecture—is uneven, and many institutions risk being held back by technical debt.
Regulatory and competitive disruption is converging. Stablecoins and tokenization are moving from peripheral curiosity to credible challengers in cross-border payments, with potential for lower costs and faster settlement. Meanwhile, financial crime risk is escalating in speed and sophistication—AI-enabled fraud, sanctions complexities, and threats tied to digital payments are forcing banks to rethink defense.
Consumer and credit risks are elevated. Auto-loan delinquencies—90+ days past due loans—have risen to levels not seen since before COVID, compounded by rising repossessions. Credit card delinquency and loss rates are climbing as lower income households feel wage stagnation and rising living costs most acutely. Business investment is more supported by AI and digital infrastructure than traditional sectors.
Strategic implications:
- Banks that commit to modernizing their data, AI, and risk infrastructure now are likely to emerge as leaders; laggards risk being overtaken or disrupted.
- Firms should use stablecoins, tokenization, and AI defensively as well as offensively—to ward off disintermediation while extracting value.
- Regulators will increase scrutiny of AI governance, fraud controls, and transparency; proactive compliance & oversight could be a competitive advantage.
- Cost discipline remains vital: balancing high investment in AI and tech with pressure from deposit costs, credit losses, and regulatory compliance.
Supporting Notes
- Deloitte forecasts U.S. GDP growth of ~1.4% in 2026 in its baseline scenario—down from 1.8% in 2025—with inflation averaging ~3.2%, and the unemployment rate rising slightly to ~4.5%.
- Auto loan delinquencies (90+ days past due) reached 5.02% in Q4 2025—levels not seen since before COVID—with rising repossessions (1.73 million vehicles; up 43% since 2022).
- In Deloitte’s Finance Trends 2026 survey, 63% of finance leaders have fully deployed AI solutions; only 14% have fully integrated AI agents; 64% plan to prioritize skills in AI, automation, and data analysis.
- Deloitte predicts retail investors’ allocations to private capital will grow in the U.S. from US$80 billion in 2024 to US$2.4 trillion by 2030.
- Tokenization: by 2030, one in four large-value international transfers could be settled via tokenized platforms, reducing corporate cross-border transaction costs by approximately 12.5%, saving over US$50 billion.
- Non-interest income is expected to rise as a percentage of average assets—nearly 1.5% in 2025—the highest level in five years.
- Financial crime risk is escalating, fueled by AI-enabled fraud; banks are facing tougher demands on compliance, sanctions, and fraud detection.