- Global M&A deal value rose ~10% year-over-year in the first nine months of 2025 to about US$1.94T, signaling a modest, uneven rebound from 2024.
- The Americas led (62% share; deal value +26%), while Europe slipped ~5% and Asia-Pacific fell ~19% to a decade low.
- Industrials surged ~77% and Energy/Health Care rose ~20% (TMT ~10%), while Materials and Consumer declined ~16–17%.
- Megadeals and private equity activity increased, but cross-border share fell as dealmakers leaned on AI/analytics and stricter strategic and risk discipline.
Read More
The 2025 BCG M&A Report presents a cautious, yet meaningful backdrop: the global dealmaking environment has shown resilience after a low in 2024, but the recovery remains uneven across regions, sectors, and deal types. With geopolitical and macroeconomic headwinds still present—tariff policies, regulation, and valuation uncertainty—companies with experience and strategic clarity are outperforming.
Regional Divergence
The Americas led the recovery, with deal value rising ~26 % to about US$1.26 trillion, most of which involved North American targets. Europe saw overall decline (~ 5 % drop), but with large within-region variation: some markets like the Netherlands, Switzerland, Germany, Italy, and the Nordics showed substantial growth; others—UK, Spain, France—contracted sharply. Asia-Pacific underperformed, with a ~19 % fall and a ten-year low in aggregate deal value.
Sectors Driving and Dragged
Industrials—especially transportation and infrastructure—were a major winner, rising ~77 % versus 2024. Energy and Health Care also saw double-digit gains, though TMT (Technology, Media, and Telecom) posted only modest growth (~10 %) despite being heavily eyed by acquirers. By contrast, Materials and Consumer sectors saw pronounced pullbacks (~-16 % and -17 % respectively), largely due to fewer large transactions.
Deal Type, Size, and Strategy
Megadeals (≥US$10 billion) rose in number—27 in first nine months of 2025, up from 21 in the same period last year—indicating greater confidence at the highest end. However, deal sizes between US$500 million and US$10 billion remain below historical monthly averages. Private equity is active, with PE deal value up ~38 %. Conversely, cross-border deals have declined as a share, reflecting elevated risk and regulatory complexity.
Emerging Tools and Mindsets
AI and advanced analytics have moved from experimental to essential. Dealmakers are applying them across target identification, due diligence, integration. But integrating culture, regulatory navigation, and strategic alignment remains as important as ever. Executives are leaning toward deals that offer long-term advantage, even at the cost of short-term performance.
Strategic Implications
For companies and advisors, the lessons include prioritizing sectors and regions where growth remains strong—e.g., Industrials, Energy, TMT in North America; recognizing that Europe and Asia-Pacific require more selective approaches; ensuring that every deal has a clear strategic intent and downside protection; embedding AI and analytics not just in process but in culture and governance; and paying close attention to regulatory risk, integration risks, and valuation discipline.
Open Questions
Will Europe’s regulators ease headwinds enough to allow deal flow to accelerate? How will cross-border M&A evolve given geopolitical risk and trade tension? Can companies outside of the technology pole catch up in AI maturity? Is the rise in megadeals sustainable, or are we seeing a temporary concentration among a few corporates? How will interest rate and monetary policy changes in 2026 shape deal financing and valuations?
Supporting Notes
- Global M&A deal value through first nine months of 2025 was ~$1.938 trillion, up ~10 % vs same period in 2024.
- The Americas accounted for 62 % of global M&A; deal value in the Americas rose ~26 % to ~$1.26 trillion.
- Europe’s aggregate deal value fell ~5 % year-over-year to ~$375 billion; Europe’s performance featured large decline in some countries and large gains in others.
- Asia-Pacific deal value dropped ~19 % to ~$284 billion—a ten-year low. Notable exceptions: Singapore (+38 %), mainland China (+11 %), Australia (~+1 %).
- Sector performance: Industrials up ~77 %; Energy and Health Care up ~20 %; Technology/Media/Telecom up ~10 %; Materials and Consumer down ~16-17 %.
- Number of megadeals (US$10 billion+) rose to 27 in first nine months of 2025 from 21 in same period in 2024.
- Private equity deal value rose ~38 % year-over-year through first three quarters of 2025.
- Cross-border M&A as share of total deal value has dropped compared to historic levels (30 % vs ~50 % in 2007).
- AI and advanced analytics are being leveraged for deal efficiency, target identification, triage, integration, with seasoned players deriving more value.