- Total investment across oil & gas, manufacturing, mining and electricity supply is projected at about NOK 363bn in 2025, up roughly 7% from 2024.
- Oil & gas investment is forecast at a record ~NOK 275bn in 2025, then moderates to around NOK 250bn in 2026 as field development and exploration cool.
- Overall investment still edges up in 2026 (about +2%), driven mainly by electricity supply and manufacturing offsetting weaker oil & gas.
- Forecast uncertainty is high due to commodity prices, policy/regulatory conditions and project timing, with late-year estimates often revised down.
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The recent survey from Statistics Norway reveals a mixed investment outlook for Norwegian industry in 2025-2026. On the plus side, total investment across key heavy industries looks set to grow notably in 2025, led by oil & gas and electricity supply, with manufacturing contributing more modestly. The oil & gas sector alone is projected at NOK 275 billion in 2025, making it the most capital-intensive year on record under the current methodology.
However, the forecast for 2026 suggests a softening for oil & gas investment as activity shifts from large field developments towards sustaining operations in existing fields (“fields on stream”), while exploration declines. The projected drop of roughly 4-5 % reflects both completed capital projects and constrained new development starts. Field development remains the single largest category under pressure.
Manufacturing and electricity supply are expected to cushion the overall investment slowdown. While oil & gas contributes negatively to growth in 2026, electricity supply shows continued upward projections; manufacturing adds a positive though less pronounced impact. These sectors will be less exposed to the completion of mega projects and more driven by domestic policy, regulatory frameworks, and existing infrastructure demands.
Risk factors are meaningful. Oil & gas investment is sensitive to commodity pricing, tax incentives, and geopolitical uncertainties—in particular, delays or regulatory setbacks could further depress 2026 estimates. Additionally, final investment numbers frequently fall below late-year forecasts, especially for drilling. Conversely, upside remains if new field developments are approved or production drilling accelerates beyond current plans.
Strategically, firms and financiers will need to shift focus from large upstream greenfield developments toward operational efficiency, cost management, and energy transition alignment. For governmental policy, maintaining or enhancing incentives for exploration and development, alongside smooth licensing rounds, will be central for moderating the decline and securing energy supply commitments to Europe.
Supporting Notes
- Total investments across oil & gas, manufacturing, mining & electricity supply in 2025 are estimated at NOK 363 billion, 7.3 % higher than in 2024.
- Oil & gas investment estimate for 2025 is NOK 275 billion, driven by higher drilling activity and movement of projects from field development to “fields on stream”.
- Projected oil & gas investment for 2026 is estimated to be NOK 249 billion, up from earlier estimates but still about 1.6 % lower than the 2025 estimate given at the same time in the previous year.
- The decline in projected oil & gas investment 2026 is fueled largely by lower activity in field development and exploration; fields on stream and onshore/shutdown/removal contribute positively.
- Seasonally adjusted quarterly final investments from 4Q 2024 to 3Q 2025 show a -2.8 % change in oil & gas, +7.1 % in manufacturing, and +0.6 % in electricity supply.
- The growth projected for total investment in 2026 is about +2.1 % compared to 2025, driven by electricity supply and manufacturing; oil & gas expected to contribute negatively.
- Large completed projects have shifted categories (from field development to fields on stream), inflating fields on stream figures in 2025; this also dampens growth forecasts for 2026 in those original categories.
- Exploration & concept studies are among the categories seeing lower estimates in 2026, indicating less investment in early‐stage upstream development.