- McKinsey’s December 2025 survey shows rising executive optimism, with 42% expecting domestic conditions to improve and 63% anticipating profit growth.
- Risk concerns have shifted from trade policy toward geopolitics, conflicts, domestic politics, and resurging inflation—especially in North America.
- Leaders are prioritizing growth through customer demand and technology investment, with AI and generative AI a top opportunity at larger firms.
- OECD and SIFMA outlooks still point to modest growth and easing inflation, with potential U.S. Fed rate cuts amid ongoing downside risks.
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The latest McKinsey Global Survey (December 2025) finds that after a period of gloom and volatility, executives are exhibiting renewed confidence—in both macroeconomic outlooks and their own firm-level performance. Not only has the share expecting improvements globally and domestically increased significantly, but company-level metrics such as profit and demand are rising to levels not seen since the end of 2024.
This improved optimism is occurring in a context where the nature of perceived risk is shifting. Trade policy uncertainty—previously the dominant concern—has fallen in importance. In its place, geopolitical instability, domestic political conflicts, and, in North America in particular, inflation have reentered as central worries. Meanwhile, expectations of stable or improving conditions are rising across many regions, especially in emerging markets such as Greater China, India, the Middle East, Central and South America, and Africa.
Leaders are adjusting their strategic focus: rather than reacting to external macroeconomic policy, the current priority is growth via customer demand and technology adoption. This is especially true among larger companies, many of which now see investment in new technologies (like generative AI) as the most important opportunity; concurrently, sectors like financial services and energy/materials show strong demand optimism relative to a year ago.
These findings lock into broader external data: the OECD projects global growth slowing to approximately 2.9% in both 2025 and 2026, with inflation moderating but remaining above target in many places. The SIFMA economist roundtable similarly envisages modest growth in the U.S. (2.2% for 2026), with inflation gradually declining and a Fed cautiously easing monetary policy.
Strategically, this implies a window for investments—firms with the capacity to push forward in technology, access regions with rising optimism, or navigate geopolitical risk well may outperform. However, downside risks remain material: geopolitical and political instability, potential fresh trade policy shocks, inflation spikes, weak demand in certain sectors, and labor market softness could undermine the more positive current trajectory.
Open questions include whether optimism will translate into sustained investment (versus cautious plans), whether inflation and policy risk filter through to costs, and how emerging and developed markets diverge going forward. Also, central banking policy moves—especially in the U.S.—could shift this outlook significantly in either direction.
Supporting Notes
- McKinsey’s December 2025 respondents expect domestic economic improvement: 42% believe conditions will improve in their countries over the next six months, up from 34% in September; only 28% expect decline.
- Customer demand: 52% expect demand for their companies’ products or services to increase in next six months—the first time above 50% since September 2024.
- Profits: 63% of respondents expect profit growth over the next six months, the highest since December 2024.
- Shift in risk perception: trade policy changes are no longer the most-cited risk; geopolitical instability and conflicts now top, with trade policy changes still significant but secondary. Inflation has reemerged among the top-five risks, particularly in North America.
- Technology and AI: among large companies, shifting to new technologies—including AI and generative AI—is now the most-cited growth opportunity; AI investment is the top priority in technology/media/telecom and service industries.
- OECD projects global growth of approximately 2.9% in both 2025 and 2026, with inflation easing from about 6.2% globally in 2024 to ~3.6% in 2025 and ~3.2% in 2026 among G20 economies.
- SIFMA forecasts for the U.S. show 4Q/4Q GDP growth of 1.8% in 2025 and 2.2% in 2026; inflation (core PCE, CPI) remains above the Fed target but is expected to moderate; one to two Fed rate cuts anticipated in 2026.