- U.S. stocks opened 2026 slightly higher, led by a semiconductor rally that lifted the Dow and S&P 500 while the Nasdaq lagged.
- Tesla reported weaker vehicle deliveries, ceding BEV volume leadership to BYD even as its energy storage deployments hit record levels.
- Major banks expect gold to stay strong in 2026, with many forecasts clustering around roughly $4,400–$5,000 per ounce.
- Strategists broadly see the S&P 500 extending its multi-year run, but flag risks from stretched AI valuations and policy uncertainty on rates and tariffs.
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The US markets began 2026 with cautious optimism, reflected in restrained gains in the Dow (≈+0.6%) and the S&P 500 (≈+0.2%) on the first trading day, while the NASDAQ Composite drifted slightly negative despite strength in semiconductors. The rally in the S&P continues a three-year run of double-digit returns, leading most Wall Street analysts to forecast another year of gains. However, history suggests that extended streaks often precede periods of heightened volatility.
Tesla’s recent delivery report marks a notable inflection point. Q4 2025 deliveries dropped ~15.6% year-over-year to 418,227 units, missing consensus estimates (≈422,850), and full-year deliveries declined ~8.5% to 1.636 million vehicles. At the same time, energy storage deployments achieved a record 14.2 GWh for the quarter and 46.7 GWh in 2025, indicating Tesla may be leaning into its non-vehicle revenue streams.
On the commodities front, gold has moved from strength into consensus bullishness, with forecasts pointing toward continued gains. A Financial Times survey pegs average year-end gold prices near $4,610 per ounce, while banks like RBC, J.P. Morgan, Morgan Stanley, and others project averages between $4,400 and $5,000 based on rising central bank demand, rate cuts over the course of the year, and growing inflationary and geopolitical risks.
Strategic implications for investors include: monitoring earnings growth expectations carefully, particularly for AI-focused and big tech firms; observing policy regime shifts including Federal Reserve leadership and trade/tariff policy; rebalancing portfolios to cushion downside from over-valued segments; and exploring non-equity havens like gold or energy storage given signs of sector shifts.
Open questions remain: How aggressively will Tesla be able to recover vehicle sales in 2026, especially under competitive pressure and changing stimulus regimes? Will AI-led exuberance sustain valuations across tech sectors? And critically, how will U.S. interest rate and Fed leadership dynamics evolve in the context of policy and political pressures?
Supporting Notes
- Tesla’s Q4 2025 vehicle deliveries were 418,227, down ~15.6% YoY from 495,570 in Q4 2024.
- Full-year 2025 deliveries totaled ~1.636 million units, representing an ~8.5% drop from 2024; BYD’s BEV deliveries reached ~2.256 million, overtaking Tesla in the BEV segment.
- Production in Q4 2025 for Tesla was 434,358 vehicles; energy storage deployments in Q4 were a record 14.2 GWh (46.7 GWh for full year 2025).
- Equity markets on January 2, 2026: Dow Jones rose ~0.66%, S&P 500 ~0.19%, Nasdaq fell ~0.03%; semiconductor giants rallied; big tech underperformed, especially Microsoft, Amazon, Tesla.
- Wall Street strategists unanimously predict the S&P 500 will rally for a fourth straight year in 2026; S&P forecasts from major banks (e.g. Deutsche Bank target ~8,000) imply mid-teens percentages upside.
- Gold forecasts for 2026 average ~$4,400-$4,800/oz among several major banks: RBC projects a 2026 average of ~$4,600, J.P. Morgan sees ~$5,055 in Q4, with upside potential toward $5,000+. $4,275 is the median estimate in a Reuters poll.