- Keefe Bruyette & Woods raised Morgan Stanley’s 12-month price target to $202 from $184 but kept a “Market Perform” rating.
- The higher target reflects improved forward estimates after recent conferences and management meetings rather than a stronger overall bullish stance.
- Morgan Stanley is a leading contender to underwrite SpaceX’s potential IPO, which could provide significant fees and boost its capital markets franchise if won.
- Analysts see only moderate upside given MS’s premium valuation and macro, regulatory, and competitive risks, with many peers also maintaining neutral ratings despite modest target hikes.
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The recent move by Keefe Bruyette reflects an analytical recalibration: while the firm increased its 12-month price target on Morgan Stanley stock to $202 (from $184), it did not upgrade the rating—it remains “Market Perform”. This suggests that while earnings projections or business expectations may have improved, they are not sufficiently compelling to shift the overall investment thesis. Factors likely driving this include upward revisions in revenue or net interest income stemming from business segments like wealth and investment management, balanced against potential tail risks.
The SpaceX IPO dynamic adds a strategic catalyst. Reports indicate that Morgan Stanley is among several major banks, including Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan, competing to lead underwriting for SpaceX, with the “lead left” spot still undetermined. If secured, that role could generate material fees and elevate Morgan Stanley’s high-profile underwriting credentials in tech and aerospace, potentially influencing future deal flow and investor perception.
However, valuation remains a sticking point. Even with the target increase, many analysts continue to see limited upside—especially given the premium MS currently trades at relative to large-cap peers, and the exposure to macro, regulatory, and competitive risks. Recent analyst ratings across the sector show many maintaining neutral or market-perform stances despite incremental increases in targets.
Strategic implications include leverage from major IPOs (like SpaceX), maintaining strength in wealth & asset management, and managing valuation expectations. Open questions: What assumptions underlie the raised target—e.g., interest rate paths, expense discipline, new business wins? How sensitive is the valuation to earnings surprises or macro shifts? Lastly, can MS convert its positioning into market share gains or fund flow momentum without diluting returns?
Supporting Notes
- On December 17, Keefe Bruyette raised MS’s price target to $202 from $184, but kept a “Market Perform” rating.
- The revision followed insights from recent conferences and meetings with MS’s management, prompting revisions to forward estimates.
- Morgan Stanley is seen as a leading contender for SpaceX’s IPO lead underwriting role, owing to a 15-year relationship with Elon Musk; although no final decision has been made.
- SpaceX’s IPO is expected to be one of the largest in recent years, with significant strategic importance tied to segments like Starlink and future space infrastructure, increasing the stakes for whoever leads the deal.
- Other analysts have raised MS price targets too—for example, Wolfe Research assigned a $198 target and list of other firms setting targets in the $150-$190 range; yet many maintain Hold/Neutral ratings.
Sources
- www.insidermonkey.com (InsiderMonkey) — January 2, 2026
- www.reuters.com (Reuters) — December 19, 2025
- www.tipranks.com (TipRanks) — November 24, 2025