- Global M&A value rebounded in 2025 to roughly $4.4T (+~45% YoY), led by U.S. activity, megadeals, and AI/data-infrastructure themes amid easing financing.
- Goldman Sachs and JPMorgan gained share in advisory as dealmaking accelerated, while private equity buyouts rose and deal structures broadened to carve-outs, minority stakes, and take-privates.
- Tech, healthcare, financials, and infrastructure/data centers drove momentum, with IPO markets reopening selectively as profitability and scale improved.
- For 2026, expectations are cautiously positive as valuation gaps narrow and policy tailwinds may help, but inflation, geopolitics, credit, and regulation remain key risks.
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Over 2025, global dealmaking rebounded sharply. Total M&A value surpassed $4 trillion by mid-December, a ~45 % increase from 2024, largely propelled by megadeals in high-growth sectors like tech, healthcare, and financial services. The U.S. accounted for a substantial share, with rising interest from both domestic and foreign acquirers, particularly in capital-intensive and AI infrastructure–adjacent assets.
Leading investment banks seized this momentum. Goldman Sachs is on track for its best M&A advisory showings in over two decades, handling around one-third of major global deals in 2025. Meanwhile, JPMorgan reorganized senior leadership (elevating three insiders to global investment banking chairs) to better capture the rising advisory demand.
Deal structures diversified. Beyond traditional full acquisitions, carve-outs, minority stake deals, and take-privates became more prevalent. Large corporates are choosing to divest non-core business units and pivot into growth themes; PE sponsors are deploying elevated dry powder into structured financing. IPO activity revived as well, led by profitability, clarity, and scale, though scrutiny has increased.
Macro and regulatory conditions shaped the pace: easing borrowing costs (rate cuts through late 2025), squeezed valuation gaps between buyers and sellers, elevated activist investor activity, and policy shifts (e.g. potential trade/tariff easing, deregulation) fostered favorable momentum. Yet, risks remain—notably inflation surprises, tighter credit conditions if rates reverse, supply-chain or geopolitical disruptions.
Strategically, firms in investment banking must adapt by scaling in high-growth sectors like AI/data infrastructure; enhancing cross-border and minority structured capabilities; building alignment with ESG and regulatory expectations; and ensuring flexible risk management to handle valuation mismatch and policy uncertainty. Open questions include how durable the megadeal pipeline is, how rate policy evolves through 2026, and how regulatory regimes (U.S., EU, China) respond to growing concerns over competition, foreign investment, and financial stability.
Supporting Notes
- Global dealmaking value reached about $4.39 trillion in 2025 as of December 18, a ~45 % YoY increase from 2024.
- U.S. deal value totaled ~$2.23 trillion in 2025, up ~54 %, though deal count dropped ~14 %.
- Goldman Sachs advised on 34 % of global mergers in 2025, up from 28 % in 2024, putting it on track for its strongest M&A performance in about 24 years.
- Deals over $10 billion numbered 68 globally in 2025—the most since the formal tracking began in 1980.
- Private equity buyouts in 2025 hit nearly $738 billion, a 26.4 % increase over 2024.
- Sectors with significant activity included technology/media/telecom (TMT), financial services, healthcare, and data infrastructure.
- IPO volumes in Europe, Middle East improved significantly (>150 % YoY in Q3); U.S. IPO issuance rose ~11 % YoY for the same period.
- M&A outlook for U.S. projects deal volumes over $100 million transactions to grow ~3 % in 2026, after ~9 % in 2025; value likely to surpass $2 trillion.
- Valuation gaps between buyers and sellers narrowed in late 2025, facilitating more deal execution.