- No public evidence supports claims that European buyout firms are actively targeting $30bn megafunds, with the biggest known funds (e.g., Permira at ~€17bn) well below that level.
- European PE fundraising hit a 2024 record (~€130–€140bn) but is forecast to drop ~20–30% in 2025 even as dry powder remains high (~€400–€435bn).
- Deal and exit activity rebounded in 2024 with larger transactions, but mega-raises remain rare and exit markets still less liquid than historical norms.
- LPs are concentrating commitments in top-tier GPs, raising the premium on scale, differentiated value creation, and valuation discipline.
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The primary claim—that European buyout firms are exploring $30 billion megafunds—cannot be substantiated based on publicly available, credible data as of early 2026. Major reports from Bain, PitchBook, Valuation Research Corp., and S&P Global show record fundraising in Europe in 2024 (~€130–€140 billion), but no individual European buyout fund is known to be targeting $30 billion. For example, Permira’s latest flagship fund is targeting €17 billion—among the largest known—but still well below $30 billion [O].
Fundraising strength in 2024 has been driven by the largest players. However, forecasts for 2025 indicate a slowdown: full-year totals are projected to fall by 20–30 % from 2024’s record levels [O]. At the same time, deal value in Europe rose sharply in 2024 (54 % YoY), with average deal sizes increasing and high-end take-privates dominating much of that growth [O]. Exits also rebounded (up ~34 %), improving liquidity [O].
LPs are concentrating capital toward well-established, high-track record GPs. Less differentiated or lower-tier funds face difficulty raising new capital, especially large commitments. Scale, operational leverage, and strong value-creation remain key differentiators in this environment [O].
Open questions and risks persist: whether Europe can sustain a megafund environment given macroeconomic headwinds; whether debt financing terms can support large leveraged buyouts without overleveraging; whether exit markets (IPOs, strategic sales) will provide predictable outcomes; and whether valuations may overheat as competition intensifies, particularly for high-quality assets.
Supporting Notes
- Europe-focused funds raised approximately €132.6–€140.9 billion in 2024, setting a record for the region. 2025 full-year projections suggest a decline of ~20–30 %.
- European dry powder held by PE sponsors is estimated at ~€401-€435 billion, sufficient to support deal flow without immediate new fundraising.
- European median EV/EBITDA multiples for buyouts rose to ~12.2× in 2024, dropping slightly in the trailing 12 months to ~11.2×, reflecting tightening valuations.
- In 2024, European deal value (excluding add-ons) jumped ~54 % YoY, with average deal size reaching ~$849 million globally, and deals ≥$1 billion accounting for 77 % of value.
- Exit value rose ~34 % to $468 billion globally in 2024; however, exit count and value remained below long-term averages. Holding periods for portfolio companies have lengthened to ~6.7 years vs ~5.7-year average over past decades.
- Large funds targeting €20–€30+ billion remain exceptional: Permira’s €17 billion flagship fund is among the largest but significantly under $30 billion, and no European fund is publicly known to have a formal target near that size. [O]
Sources
- [O] www.valuationresearch.com (valuationresearch.com) — 2025-Q2
- [O] www.bain.com (Bain & Company) — March 3, 2025
- [O] www.bain.com (Bain & Company) — 2025
- [O] www.spglobal.com (S&P Global) — March 28, 2025