- Bitcoin ended 2025 around $87,000–$90,000, roughly 30% below its October peak above $126,000 and in bear-market territory.
- Large holders sold about 161,294 BTC (~$15B) over the year, signaling continued distribution pressure.
- 2026 outlooks diverge from a pullback toward $70,000–$80,000 to tail-risk crash scenarios near $10,000 if macro, liquidity, or regulatory shocks worsen.
- Key drivers to watch are Fed policy and inflation, institutional ETF flows, and whether major support levels hold or break.
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The recent performance of Bitcoin reflects a sharp reversal from its exuberant October 2025 highs. The drop of more than 30% has pushed the market into bear territory—triggered by profit-taking, macroeconomic headwinds including rising interest rates, and heavy selling from long-time holders. The broader crypto market has lost over $1 trillion in value within weeks as BTC slid below critical support levels around $90,000.
Whale behavior has been particularly ominous: large holders have offloaded an estimated 161,294 BTC throughout the year, a move which usually precedes deeper corrections rather than follows them. This suggests that accumulation has yet to bounce back meaningfully, and that distribution pressure remains unrelieved.
Forecasts for 2026 show a wide disparity. Jon Glover, an Elliott Wave analyst, expects a decline to the $70,000–$80,000 range, possibly lower if bearish momentum continues and technical supports fail. More extreme views, including those from Bloomberg strategy projections, cite potential crashes to $10,000—though these are contingent on a convergence of negative macro, regulatory, or monetary triggers.
Among the key risk factors are sustained hawkish monetary policy, disappointing inflation data, liquidity tightening, and geopolitical uncertainty (notably U.S.-China trade tensions). If any of these intensifies, the risk of capitulation or a systemic market contagion could increase substantially. On the flip side, policy support (for instance regulatory clarity in the U.S.), renewed institutional participation, and stabilizing macro signals may provide the scaffolding needed for recovery or at least a less severe correction.
Supporting Notes
- Bitcoin closed 2025 down ~$5.3% from its opening price ≈ $93,462 to ~$88,470, falling ~30% from the October peak above $126,000.
- At its most volatile point, BTC traded below $90,000, with range-bound activity between $87,500 and $88,000 signaling consolidation rather than recovery.
- Whale entities sold ~161,294 BTC (~$15 billion) over 2025, even as “shark” (medium-sized) holders accumulated, a behavior often seen prior to deep corrections.
- Analysts (e.g. Jon Glover) warn that falling below ~$108,000 has confirmed a breakdown from a bullish structure, with projections for BTC falling to the $70,000–$80,000 range.
- More extreme crash scenarios forecast potential collapses to $10,000—largely dependent on macroeconomic headwinds, inflation, regulatory risk, or liquidity crises.
- Key tools for monitoring include Fed policy outcomes, institutional flows into ETFs, technical breaks around support zones (e.g. $90,000, $108,000), and long-term holder behavior (volume and rate of offloading).