SoftBank’s $4B DigitalBridge Deal Hits Ceiling; Commvault Surges On SaaS & Cyber Tailwinds

Below is a detailed comparison and in-depth analysis of both situations:

DigitalBridge: Acquisition and Analyst Reaction

On December 29, 2025, SoftBank Group announced a definitive agreement to acquire DigitalBridge for about $4.0 billion, acquiring all outstanding common shares at $16.00 per share in cash. The DigitalBridge Board, including a special independent committee, unanimously approved the deal. The purchase price represents a 15% premium over the December 26 closing stock price and approximately a 50% premium over DigitalBridge’s unaffected 52-week average as of early December. The deal is expected to close in the second half of 2026, subject to regulatory reviews and customary closing conditions [5][6].

Immediately following the announcement, RBC Capital Markets downgraded DigitalBridge from Outperform to Sector Perform and lowered its price target from $23 to $16, effectively aligning to the acquisition offer price. The downgrade reflects the expectation that upside above the $16 offer is limited as the deal is expected to close as announced. The analyst noted that SoftBank values DigitalBridge’s portfolio—spanning data centers, connectivity, fiber, and edge infrastructure—as a strategic execution platform for AI infrastructure build-out, while SoftBank’s stronger capital base and global reach offer leverage that DigitalBridge alone would find hard to match [7][5].

Commvault Systems: Evolving Analyst Views

Commvault has seen a number of recent analyst initiations/upgrades. Truist Securities initiated coverage with a Buy rating and a target of $230, citing confidence in CVLT’s platform for hybrid cloud, cyber resilience, and rising ARR [1]. Similarly, Guggenheim reiterated a Buy rating with a $220 target, anticipating strength in CVLT’s fiscal Q2 2026 results, expecting cloud-normalized ARR of about $44 million and total revenue growth around 18% constant currency [5]. Mizuho started coverage with an Outperform rating and a $190 target [8]. Stephens & Co. also initiated coverage with an Overweight rating but set a lower target at around $162 [10].

The underlying factors driving positive sentiment on CVLT include rising demand for data protection amid growing AI, regulatory, and ransomware pressures; CVLT’s transition from legacy backup toward full-stack data resilience in hybrid and multi-cloud environments; high recurring revenues and net revenue retention above 120%; and gross margins near 82% [1][5].

Strategic Implications

• SoftBank’s acquisition of DigitalBridge signals a consolidation trend in the AI infrastructure space, where physical assets—data centers, fiber, edge, power—are becoming central to value chains.
• For investors in DigitalBridge, the deal offers immediate liquidity at the offered price, but limits potential upside unless competing bids emerge or regulatory hurdles raise its risk profile.
• Commvault’s strong analyst backing reflects broader market demand for cyber resilience, hybrid-cloud architectures, and SaaS models; its valuation will be sensitive to execution risk, margin expansion, and recurring revenue growth.
• SoftBank may now face increased regulatory scrutiny over infrastructure consolidation and control of strategically sensitive systems; integration risk and asset management alignment will be important to monitor.

Open Questions & Risks

1. Will regulatory agencies in the U.S., EU, and other jurisdictions approve the DigitalBridge-SoftBank transaction on schedule, or impose conditions that materially change the deal? Given the infrastructure assets involved, this is a nontrivial risk.
2. Can DigitalBridge continue to operate effectively post-acquisition as a separately managed platform while aligning to SoftBank’s broader AI infrastructure strategy without losing engineering or operational focus?
3. For Commvault, what is the execution risk inherent in achieving >20% ARR growth, maintaining gross margins above 80%, and expanding cloud normalized recurring revenue; will macro pressure or shifts in spending slow growth?
4. Are the valuation multiples being assumed for both deals—especially for Commvault—sustainable when considering competition, capital intensity, and the potential for AI infrastructure overcapacity?