Private Equity 2025: Mega-Funds Rise, Deal Value High, Emerging Managers Shine

Based on multiple data sources, private equity in 2025 is characterized by capital contraction, fund count decline, and concentration of AUM at the top end. According to recent reports, U.S. PE fundraising in 2025 dropped to around $259 billion, down from $372.6 billion in 2024, while the top 10 PE funds raised about $118.3 billion—around 45.7% of all capital raised, a sharp rise in concentration versus previous years. [1] This signals increasing risk for smaller GPs and heightens LP scrutiny on track record and differentiation.

Emerging managers and newer strategies are still receiving attention, especially where they address gaps in the market. RenWave Kore, for example, raised $1.26 billion for its debut fund focused on continuation-fund deals in secondary situations, making it one of the largest first-time funds in secondaries in recent years. [3] Qualitas is targeting €200 million for its third fund, focusing on the lower mid-market across Europe and the U.S. [4] Coller Capital is also doubling down in credit/secondaries, having raised $6.8 billion for its latest credit secondaries fund and hitting $1 billion in its evergreen secondaries fund. [5]

The dominance of large funds—‘mega-funds’—grows in this environment. Mega-fund closes like those from Bain, Blackstone, and Thoma Bravo are grabbing disproportionate amounts of capital, even as best-performing mid-market and niche funds still outperform in many cases on IRR. [1] LPs appear to be doubling down on what they perceive as safer or more scalable managers, often already proven, leaving limited room for first time or marginally differentiated GPs unless they occupy unique niches.

Strategic implications for participants across the ecosystem include: LPs may increasingly prune or tilt allocations toward funds with specialized strategies (e.g. secondaries, private credit, impact). GPs among emerging managers must demonstrate clear differentiation, possibly via themes (sustainability, AI, regional mid-market), operational value add, or unusual structures (e.g. credit/secondaries). Also, the deal environment is softer in terms of number of deals but experiencing higher deal values—large buyouts and continuation transactions dominate. [6] Given this landscape, co-investment, GP stakes, and secondary markets will likely grow in importance.

Open questions remain: Can the environment sustain high valuations amid rising interest rates or macroeconomic headwinds? Will LP appetite remain high for secondaries and continuation funds if defaults increase? How will tougher fundraising conditions affect diversity of GPs and innovation in strategy? And finally, will regulation or tax changes in key jurisdictions (US, EU) shift LP behavior significantly in 2026?