How Morgan Stanley Beat Goldman as HK’s ECM Market Roars Back

The resurgence in Hong Kong’s equity capital markets throughout 2025 has realigned global ECM rankings, materially benefiting Western banks. Morgan Stanley and Goldman Sachs emerged as the leading underwriters in a year marked by megadeals from the China/EV/tech sectors. Their outperformance stems from securing mandates in large IPOs and follow-on offerings—including CATL, BYD, Xiaomi—and skillful navigation of regulatory and investor-flow dynamics. [1][2][3]

While Goldman Sachs took an early lead in 2025, especially via follow-on deals, Morgan Stanley ultimately overtook it in Asia-Pacific ECM arranging in Q2 and full year metrics, with ~$27.9 billion in Asia deals and nearly 10% regional market share—indicative of stronger execution and risk appetite. [4][5] The disparity reflects Morgan Stanley’s willingness to lead large offerings and structure difficult transactions, even when lacking the pure sponsor/sponsor-lead billing of some Mega-IPOs. [4]

This shift is not purely competitive among banks but is driven by external structural factors. Chinese issuers’ recalibration toward Hong Kong as an alternative to U.S. exchanges—due to regulatory scrutiny and geopolitical risk—has increased demand for “A-then-H” dual listings and follow-ons. Regulatory reforms in Hong Kong—such as the Technology Enterprises Channel—have lowered barriers for tech/health/EV listings, accelerating deal momentum. [3][5]

For investors and banks, the implications are multifaceted: deal origination and structuring capabilities in dual listings and follow-ons are now as critical as IPO leadership; regulatory compliance, on‐shore relationships, and managing geopolitical risk are central to execution; and maintaining speed and capacity to underwrite large and complex transactions becomes a key competitive differentiator. Yet risks remain: over-crowding of IPO pipelines, regulatory oversight (both local and international), valuation inflation, and investor acceptance with market saturation are open questions. [2][3]