Why 2025 Sees M&A Deal Counts at a Low While Megadeals Push Overall Value to Decade Highs

The Marketplace article foregrounds a dual trend in 2025: while the total number of M&A deals has plunged to a multi-year low, largely driven by a collapse in smaller-scale transactions, aggregate value has been propped up by mammoth, headline-grabbing megadeals valued at $10 billion or more [1]. This signals a market environment where large, well-capitalized firms dominate, consolidating both market position and bargaining power.

Corroborating data from Dealogic and Reuters confirm that Q3 2025 alone witnessed about $1.26 trillion in megadeals—representing a roughly 40% year-over-year increase—despite deal volume dropping to approximately 8,900 deals, a level not seen in two decades [3]. The average deal size in the quarter leapt to $141.4 million, vs. $85.5 million a year earlier [3]. Over the first nine months, the number of $10B+ deals globally rose to 27, from 21 during the same period in 2024 [4].

Sectorally and regionally, the Americas—especially North America—have led in deal value, buoying global figures even as Europe and Asia-Pacific lag. For instance, North America accounted for over 60% of global M&A value in the first 9 months of 2025, with volumes in Europe declining modestly overall though some nations like the Netherlands, Switzerland, Germany, and Italy saw gains [4]. Asia-Pacific dropped ~19% to a 10-year low in value [4].

Driving forces include risk management considerations: larger firms are seen as better able to weather macroeconomic uncertainty, regulatory complexity, and supply chain pressures. This has boosted appetite for scale and consolidation, especially in sectors like industrials, technology, energy, and transportation [1][5]. By contrast, Middle-market dealmakers are constrained by valuation gaps, less favorable financing, and heightened scrutiny [5].

Strategic implications are threefold. First, midsize businesses may find themselves squeezed: not only must they compete with super-scale competitors, but their acquisition / exit opportunities are reduced. Second, regulatory risk is resurfacing as a decisive factor—countries and competition authorities are more active, cross-border reviews more complex, especially in megadeals crossing multiple regulatory regimes [1]. Third, deal structures may shift: we observe increased use of earnouts, risk sharing, and patience in closing that may dampen smaller deals but enable larger ones to endure due diligence and antitrust reviews [5][2].

Open questions include: will regulatory bodies tighten further in response to ever-larger players? What is the break-even point of deal scale that balances risk vs. value for acquirers? Will mid-market deal flow revive when interest rates decline or stability returns—or are we witnessing a permanent structural shift toward fewer but bigger deals?